Futures Focus

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衍生工具部 (Derivatives)
輝立期貨

Phone:
852 2277 6622

重要經濟資料與事件概覽

Tuesday, November 07, 2017 Views460

澳大利亞

澳洲聯儲(RBA)週二(11月7日)召開月度貨幣政策會議,宣佈維持隔夜拆款利率於1.50%不變。此次聲明符合市場預期。

澳洲聯儲在聲明中指出,全球經濟狀況繼續改善。一些發達經濟體的就業市場已收緊,經濟增長料將進一步高於趨勢水準,但不確定性猶存。

澳洲貿易條件預計在未來一段時間內下降,但仍將保持在相對較高水準。多數國家的薪資成長保持低迷,核心通脹亦是如此。整體通脹率普遍低於年初水準,主要反映了稍早油價下跌的影響。

澳洲聯儲對國內經濟增速的預估基本持平。央行預計GDP增長將加速,未來幾年平均增速在3%左右。

公共基礎設施投資增加也在支撐經濟。一個持續存在的不確定性因素就是家庭消費前景。家庭收入增長緩慢,且債務水準較高。

就業繼續強勁增長,各個州都出現增長,就業參與率也上升。各種前瞻指標仍表明未來一段時間就業將穩健增長,失業率料從目前5.5%的水準逐步下降。

薪資繼續保持低速增長。這種情況可能將持續一段時間,不過就業市場形勢好轉應會提振薪資增長。通脹也保持在低位,整體通脹率和基礎通脹均略低於2%。

基礎通脹料將在低檔維持一段時間,反映勞工成本增速緩慢及競爭壓力升高,特別是零售領域。CPI增幅目前受到煙草及電費上漲推升。

澳元自年中以來已有所升值,一部分是反映美元下跌。澳元匯率上升料將助長澳洲物價壓力持續偏弱。這也影響產出及就業展望。匯率升值料將導致經濟活動增速及通脹率低於目前預測。

房屋債務增速高於家庭收入增速現象已持續一段時間。為解決家庭負債高企且上升的相關中期風險,澳洲審慎監管局(APRA)已推出多項監管措施。

考慮到所獲得的資訊,央行委員會認為,在這次會議上維持貨幣政策立場不變,將有利於經濟的可持續增長以及逐步實現通脹目標。

Risk disclosure statement and disclaimers of Trading Futures and Options
The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or options is substantial.  In some circumstances, you may sustain losses in excess of your initial margin funds.  Placing contingent orders, such as “stop-loss” or: stop-limit” orders, will not necessarily avoid loss.  Market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.  There is a possibility that any stop-loss order may be cancelled by a futures exchange due to various reasons including where orders are ‘out of price limits’ during a fluctuating market.  You should closely monitor your orders, as we may be unable to contact you in the event of cancellation.  You may be called upon at short notice to deposit additional margin funds.  If the required funds are not provided within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated.  You will remain liable for any resulting deficit in your account.  You should therefore study and understand futures contracts and options before you trade and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable in the light of your own financial position and investment objectives.  If you trade options you should inform yourself of exercise and expiration procedures and your rights and obligations upon exercise or expiry. You should study carefully the Disclosure Statements of Local Futures on our website

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