Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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回補下跌裂口

Monday, October 15, 2018 Views78

港股上周延續下行態勢,而且跌勢加劇,恆指曾失守26000關口,在上周四最低見到25125,周五反彈超過500點,收報25801,但按周仍下跌了772點,跌幅2.9%,是連續第三周下跌.國指一度失守10000大關,在上周四最低見到9976,周五反彈超過200點,收報10299,但按周仍下跌2.2%,也是連續第三周下跌.

 
美股方面,道指在上周四和周五累計下跌超過1300點,周五回升接近300點,但全周計數仍下跌了4.2%,是連續第三周下跌;標準普爾500指數按周下跌了4.1%,也是連續第二周下跌;納指連續第二周下跌,跌幅為3.7%.債息上升是觸發這次美股跌浪的元兇,美國十年期國債孳息率在上周曾升逾3.25%,創出七年新高.未來影響美股走勢的因素除了債息外,還有企業業績.摩根大通、花旗及富國三隻銀行股於上周五公布了第三季度業績,揭開了美股業績期序幕.據市場估計,受惠特朗普的減稅計劃,美國企業第三季營業收入和盈利將分別增長7%和19%.
 
A股方面,人民銀行在國慶節假期後宣布降準,預計可釋放資金約1.2萬億元人民幣,但對A股沒有太大刺激.受美股大跌影響,上證綜指在上周四曾跌穿2600,創出熔斷新低及兩年半最大單日跌幅.周五反彈接近1%,收報2606.中國9月份外貿數據優於預期,今年前三季度進出口值逐季提升,一定程度上為A股帶來支持.不過,受高基數因素影響,加上當前國際環境不確定、不穩定因素仍然較多,中美貿易摩擦不斷升級,今年第四季度外貿進出口增速可能有所放緩.
 
說回港股,恆指這一個下跌浪由9月26日高位28032展開,上周四最低跌至25125,累計下跌了2907點,9天相對強弱指數在上周四跌至20以下的超賣水平.相信在連跌三周後,港股將進入一波反彈浪,初步目標是補回上周四的下跌裂口.該下跌裂口闊755點,介於26193和25438之間.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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