Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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上試26000

Monday, January 07, 2019 Views420

新年伊始,港股未能呈現"開門紅",恆指再次失守25000,上周四最低見到24897.可幸周五大幅回升超過500點,收報25626,相對前周上升了122點,升幅0.5%,結束了連續兩周的跌勢.國指上周曾失守一萬大關,最低見到9761,再創自去年1月高位13963回落以來的新低,周五收報10030,按周上升0.4%,終於結束了連續四周的跌勢.
 
A股在新年首個交易日亦呈現"開門黑",滬深300更跌破了2018年的最低點,主要由於經濟數據顯示,中國經濟下行壓力加大.去年12月份中國官方及財新製造業採購經理指數雙雙跌穿50,落入收縮區.其中,官方製造業採購經理指數下跌至49.4,比11月份回落0.6個百分點,是自2016年7月以來首次跌落收縮區;財新中國製造業採購經理指數則下跌至49.7,比11月份回落0.5個百分點,是自2017年5月以來首次跌落收縮區.不過,其後公布的12月份財新中國服務業採購經理指數錄得53.9,較11月份微升0.1個百分點,並創出6個月以來新高,顯示年底服務業經營活動有所加快,略為紓緩市場對中國經濟前景的憂慮.加上中國商務部公布,中美將於1月7日至8日舉行經貿問題副部級磋商,帶來利好憧憬,推動A股回升,上證綜指上周五收報2514,按周上升0.8%,滬深300和深證成指按周分別上升0.8%和0.6%.
 
美股上周亦曾因為憂慮中國經濟前景而繼續探底下行,道指再度失守23000大關,在上周四最低見到22638,但由於財新中國服務業採購經理指數優於預期,加上美國12月份非農職位大幅增加31.2萬份,遠超預期,並為自2018年2月以來最大升幅,顯示美國勞動市場維持強勁,帶動美股回升,道指按周上升1.6%,納指和標準普爾500指數按周分別上升2.3%和1.9%.
 
說回港股,恆指上周五重越10天線,並形成早晨之星,本周料可上試26000,甚或升近100天線(26490).若急升後出現回吐,20天和50天線料會發揮支持作用.現時,20天和50天線線分別處於24840和24890水平.

 

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