Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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下試100天線支持

Monday, March 5, 2018 Views3735

上周蕪文指出恆指有望重越20天線,並補回2月6日的下跌裂口(該下跌裂口闊426點,介於31712和31286之間).恆指在上周二最高見到31799,成功補回2月6日的下跌裂口,但之後卻反覆下跌,再次失守31000,在上周四最低見到30454,周五收報30583,按周下跌了684點,跌幅2.2%,結束了連續兩周的升勢.國指在上周五最低見到12131,收報12204,周跌幅達到4.2%,亦結束了連續兩周的升勢.

 

港股主要受美股下跌拖累,道指納指和標準普爾500指數上周分別下跌了3.3%1.1%和2%.新任聯儲局主席鮑威爾在美國國會聽證會上發表半年度貨幣政策報告,由於措辭鷹派,提高加息概率,為債市和股市帶來沽壓,美國十年期國債收益率曾逼近3%.當股市稍為喘定,特朗總統又宣布對進口鋼和鋁徵收關稅,令市場擔心會觸發貿易戰,對美國不利.同時,進口關稅將推高原材料價格,對美國製造業不利.美國本周將公布就業數據,如果數據表現強勁,將加深市場通脹憂慮,可能令股市和債市受壓.

 

A股上周表現分化,上證綜指和滬深300按周分別下跌1%和1.4%,但深證成指按周反而上升1.8%.經濟數據方面,2月份中國官方和財新製造業採購經理人指數顯示,製造業總體延續擴張態勢,但對股市幫助不大.2018全國兩會召開,將增加市場觀望情緒.

 

說回港股,恆指未能企穩20天線之上,而且連10天和50天線亦再次失守,9天相對強弱指數亦再次跌破50中軸,本周料將延續下行態勢,可能再下試100天線的支持,該線現時處於30000點附近.


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