Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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港股料將呈現技術性反彈

Monday, July 9, 2018 Views4609

美國對340億美元中國產品加徵25%關稅,中國商務部表示中方不得不被迫反擊,受中美貿易戰陰霾困擾,港股連跌四周,恆指在上周四最低見到27831,再創年內新低,周五收報28316,按周下跌了639點,跌幅達2.2%.國指在上周四最低見到10450,亦創年內新低,周跌幅達4.1%,也是連續第四周下跌.

 

美股卻未受貿易戰陰霾影響,三大指數上周齊齊上升,道指按周上升0.8%,納指和標準普爾500指數周升幅分別達到2.4%和1.5%,主要受惠就業數據表現理想,.美國6月份非農業職位增加21.3萬份,多於市場預期的20萬份.同時,4月和5月份非農業職位增加數都向上修訂.雖然6月份失業率由5月份的3.8%攀升至4%,但主要是由於更多勞動力進入就業市場求職,令勞動參動率由5月份的62.7%攀升至62.9%所致.其他數據如供應管理協會製造業指數和非製造業指數亦優於市場預期,顯示美國經濟仍表現穩健.

 

A股上周維持下行態勢,在中美貿易戰和人民幣兌美元匯價持續貶值的疊加因素影響下,上證綜指在上周五曾經跌穿2700關口,最低見到2691,滬深300和深證成指亦分別一度失守3300和8800,雖然最後呈現V型反彈,但全周計數,上證糸指跌幅仍達到3.5%,周線圖七連陰;深證成指周跌幅接近5%,周線圖四連陰.經濟數據方面,6月份中國官方製造業和服務業採購經理指數一降一升,但兩個指數仍處於擴張區間,顯示製造業和服務業仍繼續保持擴張態勢.

 

說回港股,恆指已連跌四周,陰陽燭日線圖開始出現兩顆陽燭十字星,9天相對強弱指數亦呈現初步背馳,顯示市況已呈現超賣,有望作出技術性反彈.恆指10天線已下降至28630水平,相信本周技術性反彈可先上試10天線.若能突破10天線阻力,反彈目標可能接近29000.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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