Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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升勢過急將回試26000

Monday, November 5, 2018 Views3047
上周港股絕地反彈,恆指在上周二最低跌至24541,再創年內新低,但自上周三開始作出強力反彈,周五更重越26000,收報26486,急升1070點,創七年最大漲幅.和前周比較,上周恆指上升了1768點,升幅達7.2%,結束了連續五周的跌勢.國指上周五收報10688,按周上升了6.3%,也結束了連續五周的跌勢.港股能夠絕地反彈,主要由於中國國家主席習近平應約與美國總統特朗普通電話,令中美貿易爭議出現轉機,加上人民幣亦出現絕地反彈,為港股帶來雙重刺激.
 
A股亦受到上述利好因素刺激,亦大幅上揚,上證綜指上周五收報2676,為自10月10日以來的最高收市位,按周上升近3%.人民幣兌美元匯率中間價上周五報6.9371元,較上一個交易日上調299點.在岸、離岸人民幣兌美元匯率在上周五日內分別漲逾600和300個基點,雙雙收復6.89關口.
 
美股方面,道指與標準普爾500指數上周同升2.4%,而納指則升2.7%,是自9月底以來首周上升.不過,上周五美股市況相當波動,白宮首席經濟顧問拉里庫德洛表示,中美達成貿易協議仍有一段頗長距離,並對彭博有關特朗普要求內閣起草對華貿易協議的報道加以否認.受到他的言論影響,美股上周五由升轉跌.其後,特朗普表示中美貿易磋商有所進展,才令美股跌幅收窄.由於中美貿易磋商前景仍不明朗,加上美國國會中期選舉的不確定因素,相信本周美股將維持波動市況.經濟數據方面,美國10月份非農職位增加25萬份,遠超市場預期,反映美國勞動市場維持強勁,但平均時薪年率創九年半新高,將支持聯儲局於12月再度加息,可能為股市和債市帶來壓力.
 
說回港股,恆指在上周三至周五連升三日,日線圖上出現了兩個上升裂口,短期升勢有點過急.預料本周初段會作出回調和後抽,考驗能否守住26000之上,甚至是略為回補第二個上升裂口.該裂口闊375點,介於25535和25910之間.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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