Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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考驗能否守穩十天和廿天線

Monday, November 12, 2018 Views4719
受外圍因素影響,港股上周大幅波動,形成先高後低的走勢.美國中期選舉結束後,恆指在上周三最高回升至26531,為自10月8日以來的最高位.不過未能企穩26500以上,周五收報25602,相對前周下跌了866點,跌幅達3.3%.國指上周五收報10431,按周下跌2.4%.
 
美國中期選舉結果落地,參眾兩院分屬兩黨,股市初步反應正面,道指在上周四最高回升至26277,周五收報25989,按周上升2.8%,納指和標準普爾500指數按周分別上升0.7%和2.1%.聯儲局議息會議決定維持利利率不變,但表示進一步加息符合美國經濟狀況與聯儲局貨幣政策,加上上周五公布的10月份生產物價指數升幅高於市場預期,顯示通脹有上升壓力.另一方面,紐約期油跌穿60美元心理關口,進入熊市區域(由高位回落兩成),令市場憂慮環球經濟增長將進一步放緩.
 
A股三大指數上周都顯著下跌,上證綜指按周下跌2.9%,滬深300和深證成指周跌幅分別為3.7%和2.8%.中國10月份外貿數據優於預期,但未有為A股帶來太大刺激.10月份居民消息價格(CPI)同比上升2.5%,漲幅保持在八個月以來高位,顯示通脹維持溫和上升的態勢.中國銀保監會主席郭樹清表示,初步考慮對民營企業的貸款要實現"一二五"目標,即在新增的公司類貸款中,大型銀行對民營企業的貸款不低於三分一,中小型銀行不低於三分二,爭取三年以後,銀行業對民營企業的貸款佔新增公司類貸款的比例不低於50%.他的言論令市場擔心未來銀行信貸風險可能增加,將損害銀行估值.
 
說回港股,恆指由10月30日低位24541回升,明顯受制於50天線阻力.上周五裂口下跌,形成個島形轉向,本周將考驗能否守住10天和20天線之上,如失守255000,可能再下試近11月1日上升裂口頂部即25200的支持.
 
 
本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.
This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
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