Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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維持震盪格局

Monday, December 17, 2018 Views3067
上周評論預料恆指會考驗50天線(26050)支持,如50天線確認失守,下一支持位將為25500.結果,恆指在上周初再度失守50天線,上周一最低見到25570的全周最低位,主要由於市場仍憂慮中美貿易談判缺乏進展.之後傳出華為首席財務官孟晚舟獲得保釋的消息,以及美國總統特朗普表示,如果有助達成中美貿易協議,他願意介入事件,帶動港股回升,恆指在上周四最高回升至26582.然而,上周五公布的中國經濟數據表現差於預期,令市場憂慮中國經濟前景,令港股在上周五顯著回落,恆指上周五收報26095,相對上周仍上升了31點.國指上周五收報10359,按周下跌10點,是連續第二周下跌.
 
受經濟數據差於預期影響,A股上周亦收跌,上證綜指收報2593,按周下跌12點;滬深300和深證成指按周分別下跌16點和104點,深證成指周跌幅達到1.3%.11月份規模以上工業增加值同比實際增長5.4%,低於市場預測的5.9%,增速比10月份回落0.5個百分點,為接近三年來最低增速.11月份社會消費品零售總額同比名義增長8.1%(扣除價格因素實際增長5.8%),低於市場預期的8.8%,增速較10月份回落0.5個百分點,是自2003年以來的最低增速.只有固定資產投資數據略勝預期,1-11月份固定資產投資增長5.9%,預期增速為5.8%.
 
美股對中國經濟數據的反應似乎更為強烈,道指和納指上周五跌幅都超過2%.道指上周五收報24100,周跌幅為1.2%,正式落入了調整區域(由高位回落達一成).納指和標普500指數按周分別下跌0.8%和1.3%.除了受中國經濟數據影響外,美國12月份Markit製造業採購經理指數下跌至53.9,為13個月新低,而服務業採購經理指數則下跌至53.4的11個月新低,令市場對經濟前景產生憂慮.
 
中國經濟工作會議即將召開,加上美國聯儲局公開市場委員會本周將開會議息,相信本周恆指將維持於25500和26500之間的震盪格局.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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