Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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向小型頭肩底量度上升目標進發

Monday, September 16, 2019 Views2317
港股上周持續回升,恆指在上周五最高見到27366,收報27353,相對前周上升了662點,升幅2.5%,是連續兩個星期上升.國指亦連升兩周,上周五最高見到10701,收報10688,周升幅亦為2.5%.中美貿易戰出現轉機,是刺激港股上漲的主要原因.
 
中美貿易戰緩和的利好因素亦支持A股上揚,上證綜指重越3000大關,收報3031,按周上升約1.1%.A股市場持續回暖的同時,北向資金也加快流入.據統計,近四周北向資金周度淨買入額均超過百億元人民幣,淨買入額分別為112.49億元145.62億元280.09億元108.91億元.在上周中秋節假期少一個交易日的情況下,周度淨買入額仍超過了100億元.經濟數據方面,8月份全國居民消費價格上漲2.8%,維持年內較高水平,主要受豬肉價格加快上漲影響;8月工業生產者出廠價格下降0.8%,降幅較7月份有所擴大,主要受生產資料價格回落幅度擴大影響.總體顯示物價不存在全面上漲風險,但經濟下行壓力仍大,逆周期調整政策力度將有所加大.所以,人民銀行將於本周一全面下調金融機構存款準備金率0.5個百分點,再額外對僅在省級行政區域內經營的城市商業銀行定向下調存款準備金率1個百分點,將於10月15日和11月15日分兩次實施,每次下調0.5個百分點.預計此次降準將釋放長期資金約9000億元,包括全面降準釋放資金約8000億元定向降準釋放資金約1000億元.
 
美股上周亦穩步上揚,道指按周上升了1.6%,標準普爾500指數和納指按周分別上升1%和0.9%.美國8月份零售銷售上升0.4%,高於市場預期,主要受汽車銷售帶動;9月份密歇根大學消費情緒指數從8月份的89.8回升至92.經濟數據優於預期令國債大幅回升,美國十年期國債孳息觸及六周新高,上周回升幅度創自2013年以來的最大單周升幅.不過,市場仍普遍預期聯儲局本周將減息四分一厘,對股市帶來支持.
 
說回港股,恆指形成了小型頭肩底走勢,按量度升幅可見到27820.恆指上周成功收復50天線,並開始回補8月2日的下跌裂口.該下跌裂口闊453點,介於27496和27043之間.本周料將挑戰250天線(27375)阻力.如突破250天線,下一阻力位將為100天線(27600).
 
本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.
This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
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