Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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24200-24700之間窄幅上落

Monday, September 21, 2020 Views2097
上周評論指出,從十天線趨勢看,將跌穿100天線,形成死亡交叉,恆指料將下試8月低位24168.結果猜中了一半,恆指10天線在上周二跌穿了100天線,而恆指則在上周四最低見到24251,暫時並未跌穿24168.恆指上周五收報24455,相對前周下跌了48點,跌幅0.2%,是連續第三周下跌.國指在保險股回升帶動下,上周反而上升0.5%,收報9803,結束了連續四周的跌勢.
 
A股亦在金融股帶動下,三大指數於上周五顯著回升,周升幅均超過2%.上周公布的數據顯示宏觀經濟進一步回穩,如全國固定資產投資跌幅收窄,房地產開發投資增速提高,社會消費品零售總額今年以來首次呈現正增長,規模以上工業增加值增速亦見加快.另一方面,8月份人民幣新增貸款增加1.28萬億元,同比多增694億元,社會融規模增量為3.58萬億元,同比多增1.39萬億元,主要受企業中長期貸款和居民貨款拉動,顯示實體經濟融資環境持續改善.人民銀行亦繼續放水,上周(9月14日至18日)累計開展4800億元逆回購操作和6000億元中期借貸便利(MLF)操作,而上周有6200億元逆回購和2000億元MLF,以及500億元國庫現金定存到期,全口徑計算,上周在公開市場合計淨投放資金2100億元.
 
不過,美股上周仍面對沽售壓力,特別是科技股.道指按周下跌0.1%,納指和標準普爾500指數周跌幅同為0.6%.九月以來,道指納指和標準普爾500指數累計跌幅分別達到2.72%5.17%和8.34%,主要由於新冠肺炎疫情反彈,令投資者擔心會對經濟再次帶來衝擊.另一方面,美國聯儲局議息會議的會後聲明表示,近零利率或將持續到至少2023年,增加了市場對經濟前景的憂慮.
 
說回港股,恆指再次跌近24200的重要支持位,但9天相對強弱指數略見底背馳,若沒有重大不利消息,恆指應可守住24200,但回升料將受制於24700阻力.
 
本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.
This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
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