Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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回試50天線支持

Monday, March 1, 2021 Views2466

上周評論指出,如果參考1月份升浪的運行時間,這一輪由1月29日低位28260展開的升浪會於2月底3月初結束,但結果來得比預期早.恆指在前周四升見31183高位後開始展現跌勢,上周更失守30000大關,周五以28980全周低位收市,相對前周下跌了5.4%,結束了連續三周的升勢.國指按周下跌7.1%,亦結束了連續三周的升勢.

 
A股和美股上周亦大幅下挫,主要由於美國債息持續上行,十年期國債孳息率一度升逾1.6%,引發投資者拋售金融資產.上證綜指和滬深300按周分別下跌5%和7.6%,深證成指跌幅更達到8.3%.美股方面,道指和標準普爾500指數上周分別下跌1.8%和2.5%,而納指跌幅則達到4.9%.美國商務部公布的數據顯示,1月份個人收入較去年12月份大幅增長10%,高於市場預期的9.5%,創出去年4月以來的最大月度增幅,主要由於美國國會在去年底批准向美國人發放600美元現金支票,同時再度推出補充失業救濟金.受收入激增推動,美國1月份個人支出按月增長2.4%,雖然略低於預期的2.5%,但遠高於前值-0.4%.美國消費信心亦略見改善,2月份密歇根大學消費情緒指數終值由前值76.2%向上修訂為76.8.
 
說回港股,恆指這一輪升浪由28260起步升至31183,一共升了2923點,上周五最低回落至28980,由高位計下跌了2203點,相當於升浪的75.4%.如果我們將最近兩個月的升浪起點推前至去年12月22日的25999,升至2月18日高位31183,一共升了5184點.目前恆指調整幅度已超過0.382比例,若調整升幅的二分一,將見到28590,即有機會回試50天線的支持.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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