Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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恆指有望上試26500

Monday, September 6, 2021 Views3607
港股上周繼續回升,恆指一周波幅略高於個人預期的25100-25950.恆指在上周四最高見到26359,可惜未能企穩26000以上,周五收報25902,相比前周上升了494點,升幅1.9%,是連續第二周上升.國指在上周四最高見到9434,周五收報9292,按周上升3.7%,也是連續第二周上升.科指在上周四最高見到6908,周五收報6729,周升幅達6.4%.
 
A股上周表現分化,上證綜指和滬深300按周分別上升1.7%和0.3%,深證成指按周卻下跌1.8%.8月份財新中國製造業和服務業採購經理指數(PMI)雙雙跌穿50,是自2020年5月以來首次落入收縮區間.其中,製造業採購經理指數報49.2,較7月份下降1.1個百分點.服務業採購經理指數錄得46.7,較7月份下降8.2個百分點.這一趨勢與國家統計局的採購經理指數一致,8月份官方製造業採購經理指數錄得50.1,較7月份下降0.3個百分點,略高於榮枯線;非製造業商務活動指數為47.5,較7月份下降5.8個百分點.官方和財新中國採購經理指數均顯示,受疫情反彈影響,中國總體生產經營活動總量重現下降,但數據並未對A股構成太大影響.
 
美股上周亦表現分化,道指按周下跌0.24%,而納指和標準普爾500指數按周卻分別上升1.6%和0.6%.美國8月份非農職位增加23.5萬份,遠低於市場預期的72.5萬份,且比7月份增數(從原先公布的93.4萬份上修至105萬份)顯著減少,失業率則從7月份的5.4%降至5.2%,符合預期.8月份就業數據遠比預期差,或將影響聯儲局縮減購債的步調時機和規模,反而有利股市.
 

說回港股,恆指自7月初展開跌浪以來,每次反彈都受制於20天線,但這一次反彈卻能成功突破20天線,並已連續三日企於其上,加上10天線有望升越20天線,形成黃金交叉,相信這一波反彈仍未完結,只要不跌穿25700,恆指有望上試26500.

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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