Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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升勢有餘未盡

Monday, January 24, 2022 Views5742

​恆指連升五周,恆指更逼近25000,在上周五最高見到24982,收報24966,相對前周上升了583點,升幅2.4%.國指和科指則連升兩周,升幅分別為2.7%和1.8%.A股上周表現分化,上證綜指按周僅微升1點,而深證成指卻下跌0.9%.上周公布的經濟數據顯示,中國經濟仍面臨下行壓力.其中,12月份社會消費品零售總額同比增長1.7%,明顯低於11月份的3.9%增速.全年全國固定資產投資增長4.9%,增速比1-11月份下降0.3個百分點,而全年房地產開發投資則增長4.4%,增速比1-11月份6%為低.只有工業增加值數據表現較佳,12月份規模以上工業增加值增長4.3%,增速比11月份加快0.5個百分點.為應對宏觀經濟的下行壓力,中國人民銀行先後下調一年期中期借貸(MLF)利率,7天期逆回購利率,以及1年期和5年期LPR利率,但對A沒有帶來太大刺激,上證綜指按周僅微升1點,而深證成指卻下跌0.9%.


美股2022年開局不佳,市場加息憂慮推動美國國債孳息上揚,十年期國債孳息率在上周三曾升逾1.9%,為2020年以來首次,而兩年期國債孳息率亦升逾1%.債息上揚為美股尤其是科技股帶來重大沽壓,納指上周下跌7.6%,為2020年3月以來的最大單周跌幅.同時上周五收市指數較去年11月歷史高位已下跌了超過14%,確認納指進入調整區.至於道指和標普500指數,上周分別下跌4.6%和5.7%.技術上,標普500指數收低於200天移動平均線,是2020年6月以來首次.


說回港股,恆指形成雙底回升格局,從大市成交和RSI等技術指標看,升勢應該有餘未盡,只要守住10天線(該線現時處於24450附近),未來仍有望挑戰25000,並嘗試補回去年11月19日的下跌裂口,該下跌裂口闊150點,介於25227和25077之間.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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