Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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100天線攻防戰

Monday, July 11, 2022 Views3116

上周預期恆指有望延續一浪高於一浪的的勢,挑戰4月4日高位22524.結果恆指在上周二再上試22000,最高見到22199便回落,未能企穩22000以上,周四最低見到21201,周五收報21726,相對前周下跌了134點,跌幅0.6%,結束了連續兩周的升勢.國指和科指按周分別下跌1.5%和1.3%,都結束了連續兩周的升勢.

A股上周亦有所回落,上證綜指和滬深300按周都下跌0.9%,深證成指按周微跌3點.上周公布的6月份財新中國採購經理指數相比5月份顯著回升,顯示隨著疫情形勢總體改善,相關防控措施逐步放鬆,製造業和服務業景氣都開始恢復.其中,6月份財新中國製造業採購經理指數回升3.6個百分點至51.7,而服務業採購經理指數更大幅升升13.1個百分點至54.5.不過,雖然財新中國製造業和服務業採購經理指數雙雙重回擴張區間,但對股市沒有帶來太大刺激.

美股踏入7月份走勢有所改善,納指更連升五天,周升幅達到4.5%.至於道指和標準普爾500指數,按周分別上升0.8%和1.9%.聯儲局發表上月加息四分三厘的議息會議記錄,顯示官員認為如果通脹持續高企,有必要採取更緊縮的貨幣政策,又認為本月底議息時可能加息半厘或四分三厘,與主席鮑威爾在上次議息後記者會的表述一致.近期公布的經濟數據表現參差,如新申領失業救濟金人數有所上升,而職位空缺則有所減少,令市場憧憬聯儲局月底議息可能只加半厘.另一方面,6月份非農業職位增加37.2萬份,多於市場預期的26.8萬份,而失業率亦維持於3.6%的五十年來低點,顯示美國勞動市場表現仍然強勁,也為股市帶來支持.

說回港股,恆指未能企穩22000,上周演變為100天線攻防戰.加上20天線與100天線糾纏在一起,顯示恆指暫時缺乏方向.預料本周恆指將維持於21200和22000之間波動,等待突破.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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