Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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短線反彈阻力20700

Monday, July 18, 2022 Views2915

上周指出恆指上演100天線攻防戰,並介於21200和22000之間波動,缺乏方向.不過,恆指在上周二終於跌穿21200,展開下行態勢,上周五最低見到20215,收報20298,相對前周下跌了1428點,跌幅6.6%.國指和科指亦連跌兩周,周跌幅分別達到7.9%和8.5%.A股上周亦顯著回落,上證綜指,深證成指和滬深300按周分別下跌3.8%,3.5%和4.1%.上周公布的中國經濟數據差於預期,為股市帶來沽售壓力.其中,第二季度國內生產總值(GDP)僅增長0.4%,低於市場預期的1%增幅.另一方面,6月份居民消費價格指數(CPI)同比上漲2.5%,漲幅比5月份擴大0.4個百分點,高於市場預期,且創出2020年7月以來的新高,主要受國際油價國內食品價格(特別是豬肉價格)上漲影響.預計下半年CPI會繼續上漲,且很大機會升越3%的預期目標.

美股方面,6月份消費價格指數同比上漲9.1%,漲幅創40年來新高.另一方面,6月份生產者價格指數(PPI)同比上漲11.3%,高於市場預期的10.7%漲幅,顯示通脹仍持續升溫,令市場憂慮月底聯儲局加息幅度可能達到1%.其後,兩名聯儲局官員包括聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行總裁布拉德和聯儲局理事沃勒表示,支持本月加息0.75%,促使美股在上周五大幅反彈,但全周計數仍錄得跌幅.道指,標準普爾500指數和納指按周分別下跌0.2%,0.9%和1.6%.

說回港股,恆指跌穿了6月份低位20697,並補回5月27日的上升裂口.該上升裂口闊222點,介於20272和20494之間.恆指9天相對強弱指數(RSI)上周五跌至26,已呈現超賣,加上美股上周五大幅反彈,料會帶動港股短期作出反彈,但6月低位失守後,20700水平將成為回升阻力.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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