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黎健聰先生 (Keith Lai)
高級交易員

現任職輝立高級交易員,對投資股票、期貨、期權、商品、債券、基金交易經驗豐富。本人樂意為客戶提供投資分析及買賣策略。歡迎各位來電交流心得。
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黃金需求上升將持續黃金牛市向上

Tuesday, August 22, 2017 Views9080

金價值自2011年9月高位 $1920.74下跌及在2013年4月跌穿 $1535後正式進入熊市下跌後,直至2015年12月3日跌至$1046.18,高位下跌 $874.56,在2015年12月至2016年2月金融市場風險上升,引致投資者對黃金價值的需求上升及作避險,而急速反彈,在2016年2月5日升穿250天牛熊分界線,相信黃金已進入牛市,在2016年6月尾因金融市場受英脫歐公投後使金價大漲及2016年7月6日金價升至$1375.17(這接近下跌幅度$874.56的黃金比率0.382=$333)遇到阻力後使金價一直在調整。

及後在美國總統大選後,特朗普當選後金融市場穩步上揚,使市場風險胃納增加,而在金融市場穩定及預期美國經濟持續向好預期美國進入加息週期使美元走強,使金價一直在調整下跌。

在2016年12月15日跌至$1122.61後,因週期性黃金需求而再次上升,及後在2017年3月再回升至250天線後黃金價格一直在250天線($1258)上下反覆上落,上阻力在接近$1300,下支持接近$1200。

黃金價格的走勢預期在:

1)週期性黃金旺季在10月至翠年的2月對黃金較大的需求

2)預期美國受通漲影響進入加息週期,資金流入黃金作抗通漲資產

3)預計環球經濟持續轉好,引致對奢侈品黃金需求上升

4)北韓地緣政治升温

以上四點也令黃金資產升值可能。

及在第四季至翠年第一季有望再升至2016年7月高位$1375或突破高位上升。

建議回調時買入十月份紐約期金: 買入價$1277(10天線)

止賺:$1295 (本年的高位)

止蝕:$1273(在10天線$1277與20天線$1269之間)

價格資料來源:www.netdania.com

本人黎健聰為證監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益。
 

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