Market Brief

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Author

劉智健先生 (CK Lau)
助理經理

股票研究投資經驗豐富。利用市場數據、技術走勢及投資氣氛用來分析市況,配合合適的投資工具,為客戶評估風險提供買賣策略。喜歡研究資源類及內需類股票 。
Phone:
2943 7499

上石化00338.HK息率高 提供了一帶防風林

Wednesday, November 21, 2018 Views3178

公司簡介

中國石化上海石油化工股份有限公司(上海石油化工)是一家石化公司。該公司及其子公司主要從事將原油加工成合成纖維、樹脂及塑膠、中間石化產品及石油產品。該公司通過五個業務部門運營。

 

業務

合成纖維部生產用於紡織和服裝行業的聚酯和丙烯酸纖維。

樹脂和塑膠部生產聚酯片、聚乙烯樹脂和薄膜、聚丙烯樹脂和聚乙烯醇(PVA)顆粒。

中間石化產品部生產對二甲苯、苯和環氧乙烷。

石油產品部配備了用於生產真空和常壓瓦斯油的原油蒸餾設備,常壓瓦斯油用作該公司下游加工業務的進料。

石化產品貿易部從事石油化工產品的進出口業務。

 

首三季度業績

上海石油化工股份(00338.HK)公布9月止首三季度業績,按中國企業會計準則,實現營業收入808.2億人民幣(下同),按年增加18.6%。錄得純利46.6億元,增長13.6%,每股收益43.1分。

單計第三季,盈利11.36億元,同比跌25.54%,每股盈利10.5分;收入286.33億元,跌14.3%。

 

營業收入808.2億,去年同期681.5億 按年增加18.6%。變動主要原因:石化產品價格上升及石油板塊業務增長。

營業成本640.3億,去年同期516.1億 按年增加24.1%。變動主因: 原油等原材料價格上漲。

經營活動產生的現金流量淨額32.6億,去年同期49.1億按年減少33.49%。變動原因: 主要原材料價格受國際油價波動影響。

    

預測

期油價格從第4季開始下跌,石油成本下降, 但同時面對石化產品價格也有調整壓力。 因此保守預測2018全年盈利只有10%增長,約每股盈利0.625, 以現價HK$3.6計算, 往績PE5.6倍,預測5.2倍;上石化上半年PB1.25倍。

 

另一方面上石化2018年預測股息率高達7%,可為股價帶來部分支持,在現時市場風險正在上升,高息率也為該股提供了一帶防風林。

 

建議

綜合股值及股息率, 建議買入, 買入價HK$3.5, 目標價HK$4.0, 參考52周低位作為上蝕價HK$3.32。11月20日收市價HK$3.63。

 

 

如有查詢 CK LAU:  辦公室電話: 29437499 電郵: chikinlau@phillip.com.hk, November 20, 2018

註:本人劉智健為證監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益。

 
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