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三條紅線下的受惠者---中國海外發展(00688.HK)

Monday, March 1, 2021 Views4607

收緊融資

2020年中央為收緊內房融資設立的「三條紅線」,包括剔除預收款後的資產負債率不得大於70%、淨負債率不得大於100%,以及現金短債比不少於1倍,市場關注收緊內地房企融資,令內房發展減慢。

 

房企去槓桿主調不變

因疫情關係,令融資渠道限制的措施在今年推遲出台,惟6至7月內房復甦快,故內地政府趁機推出「三條紅線」指引,料未來去槓桿的主調仍然不變。

業績表現

- 截至2020年9月止九個月,集團的經營業務收入較去年同期上升12﹒1%至1183億元(人民幣;下同),經營溢利亦較去年同期上升1﹒9%至388﹒2億元。於2020年9月30日,集團的銀行結餘及現金為964﹒1億元,淨借貸比率則為39﹒97%。
- 截至2020年6月止半年度,集團營業額上升11%至886﹒25億元(人民幣;下同),股東應佔溢利則下跌3﹒7%至205﹒27億元。期內業務概況如下:
    (一)扣除稅後投資物業公允價值變動及外幣匯兌淨損益的核心淨利潤為179﹒4億元,增長0﹒3%;整體毛利減少2﹒7%至271﹒14億元,毛利率下跌4﹒3個百分點至30﹒6%;
    (二)物業發展:營業額增加11﹒2%至863﹒46億元,佔總營業額97﹒4%,分部溢利(包括應佔聯營公司及合營公司)上升1﹒9%至273﹒86億元;
       1﹒期內,集團合約銷售額增長4﹒2%至1720﹒1億元,對應銷售面積增長3﹒5%至954萬平方米;
       2﹒期內,集團系列公司(但不含中海宏洋)在中國內地21個城市共50個項目竣工,竣工的總面積達732萬平方米;
       3﹒期內,集團於中國內地13個城市合共新增21幅土地,新增總樓面面積為582萬平方米,實際權益面積562萬平方米,總地價555﹒1億元,權益地價522﹒8億元;
       4﹒截至2020年6月30日,集團系列公司擁有總土地儲備為9006萬平方米;
    (三)物業投資:營業額增加6﹒2%至19﹒23億元,分部溢利(包括應佔聯營公司及合營公司)上升10﹒3%至64﹒94億元;
    (四)其他業務:營業額下降5﹒3%至3﹒57億元,分部溢利(包括應佔聯營公司及合營公司)減少51﹒2%至523萬元;
    (五)於2020年6月30日,集團銀行結餘及現金為1113﹒8億元,銀行及其他借貸為1292﹒9億元,應付票據793﹒2億元,淨借貸比率為32﹒95%。

短評:

中國海外發展身為國企,三條紅線基本上都達標,在去槓桿的主調下,不利槓桿比率高的中小型發展商,因借錢受限下,追上大型發展商的機會更細,生存空間收窄,更很有可能被大型發展商併購。

 

在跟隨國策的前提下,未來增長一定保守,但現時股價為$18.72;PE:4.1x;PB:0.73x;股息5.5%;本人覺得十分吸引,可以買入作長線投資。

買入價:$18.72

短線目標價:$22.6

長線目標價:$28

止蝕價:$17

 

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