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吳子青先生 (Andrew Ng)
經理

畢業於香港理工大學金融服務系,2008年完成財經分析師(CFA)考試,喜歡綜合基本因素與技術分析研究股票,並對衍生工具及IPO市場有獨到見解,現主力負責公司的高端客戶,提供度身訂造的投資服務
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中國恆大(3333)搏唔搏得過?

Friday, November 26, 2021 Views11048

恆大財困的問題最近弄到滿城風雨, 相信各位投資者不會沒留意, 但恆大股票從高位下跌九成, 而債券價格也下跌了八成, 很多投資者會問一個問題: 現價買入是否值搏?

在評論恆大是否值搏之前, 筆者想整理一下, 恆大可能面對的問題:

  1. 內房行業面臨下行周期, 房價普遍下跌, 成交更是慘淡, 而今年金九銀十的銷售數據不佳, 可見短期內發展商的現金流很難好轉.
  2. 不少發展商正面臨不同程度的財政問題, 可能出現爭相割價銷售的情況, 甚至會令房價出現骨牌式下跌, 令行業雪上加霜.
  3. 恆大的債務/資產比率本來已超過80%, 在行業不景氣的情況下超過100%也不是沒可能.
  4. 三條紅線的政策下恆大已不能再貸款融資, 就算政策有所寛鬆, 銀行亦未必願意或有資金提供.
  5. 恆大集團在境外的資產並不多, 如果進一步出現財政問題, 中央可能通過外匯管制禁止資金流出, 影響境外(Offshore)債券的償還能力.

 

最近恆大償還了一些債券的到期利息, 如果有細心留意會發現這些應付利息都是已到期將近一個月的, 而債券行內的規定是債券應付利息或本金只要能在到期後一個月內償還, 就不算正式違約, 筆者估計未來一段時間恆大也會用類似的拖延手法處理應付利息, 希望拖延到政策或行業環境有所改善. 總結來說現階段買入恆大絕對是高風險投機, 甚至要面臨永遠停牌的風險. 不過如果各位仍想進行短線投機的話可留意股票的20天線這個阻力位, 待股價跌至比20天線低10%時買入, 反彈至20天線左右沽出.

 

注: 本人吳子青為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止, 本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益

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