Market Brief

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Author

區良鍵先生(George Au)
業務副董事

工商管理(財務系)畢業, 有十多年投資經驗, 經歷過股災及大大小小的升/跌市. 善於配合基礎因素及技術分析, 整合不同投資工具, 在不同市況下作出相應投資決定. 熟悉本地投資市場, 尤精於股票期權、指數期權及期貨投資.
Phone:
3925 9237

短線下跌風險稍減, 沽期轉 Short Call

Thursday, February 11, 2016 Views6485
短線下跌風險稍減, 沽期轉 Short Call
 
A. 大市預測:
 
後市仍有下跌風險, 但機會稍減, 原因如下:
 
1. 美國指數成份股公佈的業績差參, 但非一面倒向差, Dows 及 S&P 500因成份股業績差勁大跌機會減少
2. 油組和俄羅斯等就石油減產潛在達成協議的機會, 令油價暫時回穩, 油價持續下跌利淡大市的因素減退
3. 人民幣匯價近日轉穩, 內地維穩意慾頗為明顯, 人民幣對港股利淡影響稍減
 
但應注意, 大市大跌風險並未完全消退, 如環球經濟不佳, 出口弱, 耐用品定單數據不佳, 及潛在貨幣戰風險等. 以上因素亦令港股大幅上升機會不大.
 
個人仍預計2016年恆指大幅高於 23,000點機會不大.
 
B. 買賣部署:
 
1. 如之前在 18,700 附近沽了期指, 不論是直接 Short 2月或是轉倉至2月, 基於上文的原因, 可考慮 Short 2月 19,000 Put, 目標收約 400點期權金.
以2月結算價計, 如恆指在19,000 或以下結算, 整個組合利潤約 100點.
即使指數保持現水平, 新開的 Short Put 多少能賺點溢價.
 
以上做法, Short Future + Short Put, 效果其實和 Short Call 相似.
 
如大市持續上升, 因以上組合打和點約 19,100, 基於大市不會大幅上升的預測, 可以在2月結算考慮轉倉, 視乎市況, 決定屆時是 Short Call 還是 Short Future.
 
2. 如目前並無倉位, 可考慮  Short 2月行使價 20,000 Call Option, 但目標收取期權金因以 200點以上較佳.
 
(以上兩個策略的潛在最大損失為無限)
 

3. 當然, 如投資者認為目前已見底, 並打算買入股票, 在上文提及的風險下, 暫時只買入2成-3成的股票, 也許是在風險管理角度下, 稍為相對安全些的做法.
 
 
 
註1: 具體及即時買賣策略只會向個人客戶提出.
市況可隨時變化, 網站文章不一定會及時更新. 投資者宜向個人經紀查詢意見.
 
註2:期貨及期權價格可升可跌, 投資可賺可蝕.
期貨及期權買賣有槓桿效應, 可放大潛在利潤及損失. 潛在最大損失可以無限.
 
以上純屬個人意見,不構成任何買賣邀請。本人區良鍵為證監會持牌人,本人及/或其有聯繫者會隨時就不同情況買賣上述分析的相關資產.
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