Market Brief

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吳子青先生 (Andrew Ng)
經理

畢業於香港理工大學金融服務系,2008年完成財經分析師(CFA)考試,喜歡綜合基本因素與技術分析研究股票,並對衍生工具及IPO市場有獨到見解,現主力負責公司的高端客戶,提供度身訂造的投資服務
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脫歐的感想

Thursday, June 30, 2016 Views4738
  坦白說, 對於脫歐公投的結果, 筆者是估錯的, 在結果還沒出來之前, 筆者一直想信英國會留歐, 而有這種想法的主要原因, 是博彩公司的賠率一面倒支持留歐, 筆者相信既然當中涉及大量資金, 而且有大量專業人仕計算賠率, 所以賠率一定能反映實際情況, 也就是有絕大機會英國會留歐.
 
  以上的觀點看似十分合理, 不過公投的結果正好相反, 這令我反思究竟問題出在那裡. 筆者嘗試以博彩公司的立場入手, 思考他們為什麼會開出這樣的賠率. 首先, 民調的結果可說是不分上下, 開出不對等的賠率不是要吃大虧嗎? 原來筆者忘記了博彩公司跟賭場一樣, 他們並不是想跟投注客戶對賭, 而是要從開盤中賺取差價, 最理想的情況是投注平衡, 然後無論英國脫不脫歐都能出現盈餘. 想到這裡筆者心生一問: 博彩公司開出脫歐的賠率比較高, 是不是因為投注留歐的錢比脫歐的錢多很多? 這是絕對有可能的. 試想想, 低收入人士較傾向脫歐, 因為他們比較關心移民和福利政策, 脫歐對他們可說是比較有利, 但他們實在沒有太多錢去投注; 相反較高收入人士較可能從歐盟的地位中受惠, 所以較支持留歐, 他們也有較多空閒錢去投注自己的意向.
 
  筆者透過以上例子想再引証一點: 資金的流向對定價有決定性影響. 事實上金融市場也不時出現這種例子. 回想起當年美銀打算減持建行, 市場上出現恐慌, 導致建行的期權出現超高的價格和引申波幅, 這可算被鈔票影響了價格. 但心水清的朋友會明白建行的基本因素並不會因此改變, 而且就算美銀要沽貨也會維持股價慢慢沽, 所以建行大跌的風險其實不高. 而事實上當時如果開SHORT PUT倉回報非常可觀.
 
  金融市場偶已會出現一些價格不合理的情況, 但如果要從中鑊利, 則需要冷靜分析和敏銳的觀察力.
 
註: 本人吳子青, 為證監會持牌人士, 截至本評論文章發表日止, 本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益
 
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