Market Brief

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Author

區良鍵先生(George Au)
業務副董事

工商管理(財務系)畢業, 有十多年投資經驗, 經歷過股災及大大小小的升/跌市. 善於配合基礎因素及技術分析, 整合不同投資工具, 在不同市況下作出相應投資決定. 熟悉本地投資市場, 尤精於股票期權、指數期權及期貨投資.
Phone:
3925 9237

深港通會否成為下一隻黑天鵝?

Monday, November 21, 2016 Views7285

大半年沒有寫文, 先回顧一下上次的策略.

 

2月策略是沽期 + Short Put, 結算日打和點 ~19,100, 2月結算價 19,225, 略輸100點左右.

 

上年年底曾指出, 港股今年最低最高位, 預計在17,000-23,000點左右. 截至18/11, 恆指今年的最低位是 18,279; 而在英國脫歐公投後, 雖曾見24,000點, 但之後輾轉回落, 特朗普當選美國總統後, 恆指已回落至22,000左右. 市況整體格局和預計大致相若, 如有在23,000 預計的高位沽期指, 或沽出手上正股, 近日在低位買回, 回報也應該不錯.

 

 

深港通快將推出, 坊間不少意見認為在正式推出時, 港股會借勢上升. 而近期市場有很多所謂黑天鵝, 深港通推出時, 會否出現反高潮, 港股不升反跌?

 

個人認為恆指進一步大跌的概率應已減少不少, 原因是:

1. 港股目前估值不算太貴

2. 早前擔心的數件利淡事件已錄續出現, ''潛在炸彈'' 已拆/推遲, 如:

• 英國公投選擇脫歐 (但正式脫歐程序不會早於明年3月啓動)

•特朗普當選美國總統 (但當選後未有作出驚人言論)

 

整合以上因素, 港股年底前的預測下限上調至21,000點, 除非外圍出現重大利淡消息, 否則港股跌至21,000點機會不大. 22,000點附近可陸續部署一些優質股票好倉.

而以下版塊股票或會受惠深港通的推出而有所炒作, 升幅或 >10%.

 

注意事項:

• 12月的意大利公投

• 英國法院可能對脫歐是否要經國會討論作裁決

 

以上都是一些近期 ''所謂''黑天鵝出現的潛在因素, 在這些日子來臨前夕, 需注意一下風險, 看是否有需要減少一些正股持倉.

 

有關所謂黑天鵝的潛在風險有時其實並不可怕, 特別是那些知道在什麼時候可能會出現的黑天鵝 (如公投, 選舉等等). 個人意見, 2015年希臘否決歐央行的救助方案比今年英國脫歐及特朗普當選更黑天鵝, 出現概率較今年兩者更小, 對市場短期負面影響更大 (3日跌 >3,000點). 而當時的風險管理策略, 結果不但能避險, 更能獲得額外利潤. (恆指跌>3,000點, 但風險管理策略賺 >10,000點) 詳情可參考以下相關連結:

 

http://www.poems.com.hk/zh-hk/research-and-analysis/market-brief/?id=8801&writerID=10119

 

 

註1: 具體及即時買賣策略只會向個人客戶提出.

市況可隨時變化, 網站文章不一定會及時更新. 投資者宜向個人經紀查詢意見.

 

註2:期貨及期權價格可升可跌, 投資可賺可蝕.

期貨及期權買賣有槓桿效應, 可放大潛在利潤及損失. 潛在最大損失可以無限.

 

以上純屬個人意見,不構成任何買賣邀請。本人區良鍵為證監會持牌人,本人及/或其有聯繫者會隨時就不同情況買賣上述分析的相關資產.


 

 

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