Research Report

Author

章晶小姐 (Zhang Jing)
高級分析師

本科畢業於同濟大學工科,碩士畢業於華東師範大學金融貿系。現為輝立証券持牌高級分析師,主要負責汽車及航空板塊的研究,曾獲得《華爾街日報》亞洲區2012年度汽車及零部件最佳分析師第二名,擅長將行業前景與上市公司結合分析。

Bachelor Degree in Tongji University of Engineering; Master Degree in East China Normal University of finance. Currently cover automobile and air sectors. Having worked in research for years and is good at combining analysis for the companies with industry prospects.


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China's Auto Sector Report - Following the investment logic, the strong to be constantly powerful

Wednesday, August 1, 2012 Views13865
China's Auto Sector Report

Summary

· It is absolutely a definite event that the growth of China auto market will slow down, and the yearly auto sales in 2012 is predicted to increase by nearly 7%. However, we believe that, the burst of structural demand ( eg, SUV demand ), the consumption upgrading trend and the popularization period of 3rd, 4th and 5th tier cities will bring about opportunities to some specific segment market of Chinese auto industry. Concerned strong enterprises still has space for fast growth.

· The fast growth period of SUV will last for 2 to 3 years more, then to enter the mature period with stable growth. From the price, 200-250 thousand's car models are the main force of growth. Meanwhile, taking into consideration a proportion of needs for first car buying in non-first-tier city, the mid-and-low price market of 80-100 thousand is estimated to be quite prosperous.

· The bottoming-out of the heavy truck industry is hopeful in H2 2012, but the whole dramatic reversal won`t be very possible, complete recovery still necessary to be waited.

· The winners and losers point among auto enterprises gradually become obvious, and the investment chance in auto share will display structural features. Our investment logic mainly recommend: 1. Companies with strong affirmation of the performance growth; 2. Those companies whose performance possibly bottom out and rebound; 3. Companies benefiting from relative policies, such as Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), Dongfeng (489 HK) and GAC Group (2238HK).

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