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內房基本面復甦能力較強,下半年將迎來行業旺季

中國目前疫情可算受控,經濟基本面向好,次季GDP有望實現V形反彈,由負轉正。此外,中國經濟更是一枝獨秀,國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預測,中國將是今年GDP唯一錄得正增長的主要經濟體。

目前世界各國為了救市紛紛“放水“(包括降準、降息、大量印鈔),刺激環球資產價格上升。中國也不例外,自疫情爆發以來,曾3次下調存款準備金率,共釋放約1.75兆人民幣,同時亦多次降息,房貸利率創史上新低,為市場提供大量的流動性。截止5月底,廣義貨幣M2增速為11.1%,為近3年來較高水平。根據克而瑞研究中心數據顯示,6月,TOP100房企單月實現全口徑銷售金額約1,4500億元,對比5月增長33%,TOP100房企二季度全口徑業績規模高於去年同期。從數據上分析,內房基本面的復甦能力較強,給予市場信心。

下半年房地產更將迎來其傳統的銷售旺季,不少優質樓盤都選擇於9月份至10月份期間開盤,有著“金9銀10”之稱。我們認為內房龍頭股值得看好,推薦碧桂園(2007.HK)、中國恒大(3333.HK),萬科(2202.HK)。

撰稿: 趙明志研究分析員
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+852 2277 6514

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kevinchiu@phillip.com.hk
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