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藥品集采短期影響醫藥股業績,長線看好醫藥板塊

日前醫藥股出現殺跌,主要是由於前期經歷了估值上漲以及近期市場對藥品集采降價的擔憂。我們重申醫藥板塊的成長動力不變,中國的人口老齡化以及居民對醫藥產品、醫療服務日漸增長的需求,依然是醫藥醫療行業長期繁榮的動力。近期超跌不失為長線買入時機。

9月11日國家組織開展藥品集中採購,試點藥品從通過一致性評價的仿製藥對應的通用名藥品中遴選試點品種入手(包括33個品種),採購量是當地所有公立醫療機構年度藥品總用量的 60%-70%。北京、上海、天津、重慶、瀋陽、大連、廣州、深圳、廈門、成都、西安11個城市將成為此次的試點採購地區。

藥企首先要去申請通過仿製藥一致性評價,通過才可申請國家統一招標,進入集中採購的藥品平均降價10%-40%。我們強調,藥企的藥品平均售價雖然下降卻可鎖定銷量,並且有從原廠藥中搶到市占率的機會。雖然進入採購的藥品可能因降價而帶來毛利率下降,但集采可能減少有關銷售人員人工開支,預計淨利潤率受影響不大。

撰稿: 周霖研究分析員
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+852 2277 6515

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euruszhou@phillip.com.hk
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