The collapse of the US subprime mortgage market has gained much attention, occupying news headlines over the past few months. As the global financial markets become ever more integrated, this collapse has profound ramifications into other areas of the financial markets and the gold market is no exception.

One primary outcome of recent market developments has been the change in the risk appetite of many investors. Investors are becoming more risk averse and there is an inclination to move away from risky assets into safe havens. We believe that this change in risk appetite, coupled with the associated changes in US economic conditions, has made gold, and hence, gold equities particularly attractive.

Gold as an investment

Most of the base metals are what we termed cyclical assets in the sense that the market demand for them changes according to economic cycle – rises during a boom and falls during a downturn. Unlike other base metals, gold is countercyclical in nature, however. This property of gold reflects the fact that gold is an asset with intrinsic value, that is, its value is automatically adjusted for inflation or, more simply, it has real purchasing power. It is, thus, traditionally seen as safe haven instrument as it provides hedge against inflation and moves in the opposite direction of the dollar. These key properties of gold have made it an effective hedge and an attractive investment in an economic downturn, or even, a recession.

The Perfect Storm for Gold

What we are experiencing now has been referred, in various publications, to as the “Perfect Storm for Gold”. Weakness of the US dollar, on-going concerns regarding the credit markets, strength in commodities markets, persistency of inflationary pressure and the mismatch between supply and demand have all provided support for the current level of gold price as well as upside potential for it to move higher.

The continued subprime crisis in the United States has remained to be the focus for the Federal Reserve, with inflation becoming its secondary concern. Since mid September, in the wake of the collapse of the credit markets, the Fed has already reduced its benchmark interest rate three times to 4.25% at the expense of greater inflationary pressure. What is more is that the market continues to anticipate further rate cuts and liquidity injections by the Fed in order to alleviate the effects of a credit squeeze. The market consensus now is that the dollar will remain under downward pressure in 2008. We believe that US dollar will extend its declines, and thus, making gold an even more appealing alternative asset to hedge against inflation.

There have also been a number of structural changes in the gold market as a result of the continued weakness of the US dollar. We see that, despite the recent surge in gold price, there has still been a strong, improved demand from the jewellery sector coming mainly from China and India, which are believed to be less sensitive to the deteriorating economic conditions in the US. This is clear evidence that gold market participants have already adjusted themselves to higher dollar denominated gold price and we believe it should provide a solid support to its current level.

Furthermore, it should be noted that although gold price has risen by about 25% this year, it is still below its peak at around US$850/oz reached in 1980. Notice that this price has not been adjusted for inflation, if the real price were considered, the current price would represent an even larger upside potential for gold price.

Central Bank Reserves and Gold Price

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