Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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營造另一個下跌旗形

Monday, July 10, 2023 Views2581

上周評論指出,恆指從6月16日高位20156急速回落,似形成個下跌旗形.如跌穿18750,將回補6月2日的上升裂口,該上升裂口闊82點,介於18466和18548之間.恆指在上周五最低見到18280,完全補回上述裂口,當日收報18366,相對前周下跌了550點,跌幅2.9%.國指受內銀下跌拖累,周跌幅達3.5%.科指受惠阿里巴巴股價上升,按周僅下跌0.3%.滬深股市上周亦表現偏軟,成交繼續縮減.上證綜指按周下跌6點,而深證成指則下跌1.3%.6月份財新中國製造業和服務業採購經理指數(PMI)雙雙回落,顯示經濟恢復基礎不穩固,修復速度不及預期.其中,製造業PMI回落至50.5,較5月份下降0.4個百分點;服務業PMI回落至53.9,較5月份回落3.2個百分點,為六個月次低,僅高於今年1月.

美股方面,ADP就業報告顯示,6月份美國私營部門職位增加49.7萬份,遠高於5月份下修後的26.7萬份,亦遠高於市場預期的22.5萬份,反映美國勞動市場沒有出現放緩跡象,提升聯儲局加息機會,為債市和股市帶來沽壓.美國兩年期國債孳息率在上周四一度突破5%,創出17年新高,而十年期國債孳息率亦一度升越4%.不過,上周五公布的6月份非農職位僅增加20.9萬份,低於預期的23萬份,為2020年12月以來最小增幅.美國國債孳息率在上周五稍為回落,但股市仍見沽壓,道指,標普500和納指按周分別下跌2%,1.2%和0.9%.

說回港股,恆指從上周二日高位19449下跌至18280,跌幅超過1000點,跌勢略嫌急速,本周或會出現技術性反彈,營造另一個下跌旗形,之後再下試18000點;反彈阻力位18800.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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