Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666

扭轉下行趨勢還是走勢陷阱?

Monday, November 23, 2015 Views2224
上周估計恆指將下試50天線支持,結果恆指在上周一裂口跌穿50天線,最低見到21958.但估錯的是,50天線失而復得,恆指自周一低位逐步回升,周五最高回升見22790,收報22755,相對前周上升了255點,升幅1.1%.國指在上周一亦裂口低開,曾經失守10000大關,最低見到9968.周五最高回升至10342,收報10302,按周上升1.2%.
 
滬深交易所宣布降低兩融槓桿比例,把投資者的融資保證金最低比例由50%提高至100%,自11月23日起實施.加上新股申購行將重啟,一度令A股受壓,上證綜指在上周一最低見到3519,但不利消息迅為市場所消化,上證周五收報3630,按周上升了1.4%;滬深300和深證成指則分別上升了0.8%和2.4%.對於兩融保證金比例上調,中國證監會宣布,在<<融資融券交易實施細則>>實施前已存續的融資融券合約仍按照調整前的相關規定執行,投資者不需要因此次調整追加保證金或平倉,且合約可以展期,因此對存續融資規模影響不大,對於新增規模增速將有一定影響.此次調整目的在於防範兩融規模急劇增長,對於股市長遠發展有利.新股重啟方面,中證監表示,先恢復於6月份核准的28家企業的首發申請中的10家,剩餘的18家將於年內分兩批啟動發行.加上中證監宣布取消新股申購預繳款制求,改為中簽後再繳款,相信不會對資金面造成太大壓力.
 
美股上周表現強勢,聯儲局公布的10月份議息會議記錄顯示,大部分公開市場委員會委員傾向12月加息,反映聯儲局對美國經濟前景有信心,因此被市場當成好消息.道指全周上升了3.4%,是自10月9日以來的最大單周升幅.納指和標準普爾500指數則分別上升3.3%和3.6%.
 
說回港股,今月恆指走勢仍屬先高後低,月內高點為23342(見於11月4日),低點為21958(見於11月16日).期間曾出現兩次急抽(分別是11月4日和11月12日),但都屬於虛火上升.今次恆指重越10天和20天線,是否真正扭轉了自10月26日展開的下行趨勢,還是又一次虛火上升的走勢陷阱,要看能否上破22981並企穩其上.
本人黃瑋傑為證監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之證券的所有相關財務權益.

 
This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
Top of Page
Contact Us
Please contact your account executive or call us now.
Research Department
Tel : (852) 2277 6846
Fax : (852) 2277 6565
Email : businessenquiry@phillip.com.hk

Enquiry & Support
Branches
The Complaint Procedures
About Us
Phillip Securities Group
Join Us
Phillip Network
Phillip Post
Phillip Channel
Latest Promotion
新闻稿
E-Check
Login
Investor Notes
Free Subscribe
Contact Us