Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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回補1月初上升裂口

Monday, February 13, 2023 Views2214

上周評論指出,如果恆指20天線確認失守,可能進一步調整,或將下試21000.結果,恆指於前周五跌穿20線後,一直未能升回其上,上周一最低見到21086,之後回升卻受制於21650,周五收報21190,相對前周下跌470點,跌幅2.2%,是連續第二周下跌.國指和科指亦連跌兩周,周跌幅分別為3.5%和5.9%.

A股方面,上證綜指按周微跌3點;滬深300和深證成指按周分別下跌0.8%和0.6%.經濟數據方面,1月份全國居民消費價格同比上漲2.1%,漲幅較去年12月份擴大0.3個百分點,主要受春節效應和疫情防控政策優化調整等因素所影響,隨著節慶因素逐步消退,漲幅繼續擴大的可能性偏低.1月份全國工業生產者出廠價格同比下降0.8%,跌幅較去年12月份擴大0.1個百分點,反映短期需求復甦雖然有利價格回升,但傳導仍存時滯.另一方面,中國人民銀行公布的金融統計數據顯示,1月末廣義貨幣(M2)餘額同比增長12.6%,增速創2016年中以來最水平.1月份人民幣貸款和社會融資規模分別增加4.9萬億元,和5.98億元,都超出市場預期,反映穩健的貪幣政策加大對實體經濟支持力度,將有助提振市場信心,激發市場主體活力.

美股上周亦表現偏軟,道指按周下跌0.2%,是連續第二周下跌;標準普爾500指數和納指分別下跌1.1%和2.4%.包括鮑威爾在內的聯儲局官員上周言論偏鷹,推動債息上升,為美股帶來沽壓.另一方面,2月份美國密歇根大學消費者信心指數初值升至66.4,高於市場預期的65,反映消費信心改善,但2月份消費者一年通脹預期初值從1月份的3.9%反彈至4.2%,顯示通脹仍面對上升壓力.因此,本周公布的消費物價指數數據將備受關注.

說回港股,恆指在上周一跌穿10天和20天線後,一直未能升回其上,而9天相對強弱指數(RSI)亦未能重越50中軸,顯示調整仍將持續.若21000失守,下一步將回補1月5日的上升裂口,該上升裂口介於20793和20962之間,尚差70點未補回.

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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