Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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2277 6666

四線匯聚走勢更為飄忽

Monday, March 11, 2024 Views1459

上周評論指出,恆指仍受制於100天線阻力,但只要能守住50天線,未來仍有機會上破100天線.結果見恆指上周多次下試50天線,但50天線幸保不失,而恆指則呈現日升日跌窄幅波動格局,全周高低波幅只有550點,高位16646和低位16096分別在周一和周二見到,周五收報16353,相對前周下跌了236點,跌幅1.4%,是連續第二周下跌.國指亦連跌兩周,周跌幅為1.3%.科指按周下跌2.9%,結束了連續四周的升勢.滬深股市上周表現分化,上證綜指和深證成指按周分別上升0.6%和下跌0.7%.經濟數據方面,中國海關總署公布今年前兩個月貨物貿易進出口總值6.61萬億元人民幣,同比增長8.7%.其中,出口增長10.3%,進口增長6.7%;貿易順差擴大23.6%.另一方面,財新中國2月份服務業採購經理指數降至52.5三個月低位,較1月份回落0.2個百分點,顯示服務業仍維持擴張但勢頭放緩.

美股疊創新高後面對回吐壓力,道指按周下跌0.9%,是自去年10月以來的最大單周跌幅;標準普爾500和納指按周分別下跌0.3%和1.2%.聯儲局主席鮑威爾在美國國會發表的言論算是利好股市,他表示如果通脹配合,減息可能不會太遠,增強了市場對聯儲局6月開始減息的預期.此外,他又表示美國經濟會繼續穩健增長,並不預期美國會在短期內陷入衰退.上周天公布的非農數據大致上印證了他的看法,2月份美國非農就業人數增加27.5萬人,多於市場預期的19.5萬人.不過,失業率意外地由3.7%上升至3.9%.更重要的是,與通脹相關的平均時薪月率從0.5%大幅降至0.1%,低於預期的0.1%.

說回港股,恆指夾於50天和100天移動平均線之間窄幅波動,已有三個星期.本來預期上周藉著中國兩會召開以及鮑威爾在國會發表談話會出現突破,但結果還是維持窄幅波動的待變格局.技術上,目前開始形成10天,20天,50天和100天四線匯聚的形態,走勢會變得更為飄忽,唯有耐心等待最終突破,是升穿100天線(16660)繼續上行,還是跌破50天線(16160)走勢再度轉弱.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

 

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