Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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升破100天線後抽

Monday, March 18, 2024 Views1322

港股走勢上周終於呈現突破,恆指在上周二一舉升穿17000點以及100天移動平均線,周三最高見到17215,但周四和周五回吐壓力增加,恆指失守17000點,周五最低見到16550,收報16721,但相對前周仍上升368點,升幅2.25%,結束了連續兩周的跌勢.國指也結束了連續兩周的跌勢,按周上升2.9%;科指周升幅更達到4.8%.滬深股市上周亦表現向好,上證綜指和深證成指按周分別上升0.3%和2.6%.經濟數據方面,人民銀行公布內地今年首兩個月人民幣貸款增加6.37萬億元.其中,2月新增人民幣貸款約1.45萬億元,略低於市場預期中值的1.5萬億元,按年少增3600億元.另外,今年首兩個月社會融資規模增量為8.06萬億元,按年少1.1萬億元.其中,2月社融增量為1.56萬億元人民幣,是去年7月以來新低,亦低於市場預期的2.22萬億元,較去年同期少1.6萬億元.市場關注中國在本周一公布的一系列宏觀經濟數據,包括2月份固定資產投資,社會消費品零售總額和工業增加值.


美股上周呈現回吐,道指,標準普爾500和納指按周分別下跌0.02%,0.13%和0.7%.美國2月份通脹數據高於預期,令債息回升,為股市帶來沽售壓力.其中,2月份消費物價指數(CPI)按年升3.2%,高於預期的3.1%;核心CPI年率從3.9%降至3.8%,但高於預期的3.7%.2月份生產者價格指數(PPI)按年升1.6%,高於預期的1.2%,是2023年9月以來最大漲幅;核心PPI按年升2%,亦高於預期的1.9%.不過,美國2月份零售銷售按月僅增長0.6%,低於預期的0.8%,而3月份密歇根大學消費者信心指數從2月份的76.9降至76.5,低於預期的76.9%,顯示消費開支有走弱跡象,所以利率期貨顯示,美國6月減息機率仍達55%.市場將關注聯儲局本周議息會議,會否縮減今年的減息次數.


說回港股,恆指上周三最高見到17215,升越了今年1月2日高位17135,扭轉了今年先高後低的走勢.周五最低見到16550,一度下破100天線,但收市指數仍企100天線(16620)以上,可視為升破100天線後的正常後抽.後市只要不跌破16500,完成後抽後,仍有望重上17000點.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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