Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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上升動力仍然不足

Monday, September 8, 2025 Views360

港股上周維持窄幅波動缺乏方向,恆指高低波幅不足800點。有報道指中國金融監管機構正考慮採取一系列措施來冷卻股市,令A股和港股上周四顯著下挫,恆指低見25013點。之後又有報道指指內地擴大服務消費若干政策舉措有望近日推出,刺激A股和港股周五大幅反彈,恆指周五收報25,417點,按周累升340點或1.4%。國企指數收報9,057點,按周累升109點或1.2%。恒生科技指數收報5,687點,按周累升13點或0.2%。

 

據內媒報道,內地擴大服務消費若干政策舉措有望近日推出。為順應居民消費結構升級的趨勢,新政策舉措將着力增加高品質服務供給,包括擴大入境消費,推出更多優質入境旅遊線路和服務;推動互聯網、文化等領域有序開放;推動將露營、民宿、物業服務、「互聯網+醫療」等服務消費條目納入鼓勵外商投資產業目錄等。本周中國將公布一系列重要經濟數據,包括8月外貿數據、人民幣新增貸款及社會融資增量、CPI和PPI、首八個月FDI數據。

 

美股方面,美國8月非農就業增加2.2萬,遠低於上修後7月的7.9萬及市場預測的7.5萬,凸顯出勞動力市場冷卻的跡象。8月失業率從上個月的4.2%上升至4.3%,符合市場預期,是自2021年10月以來最高。期間失業人數增加14.8萬,達到738.4萬人。數據引發市場對經濟放緩的擔憂高於減息的憧憬,三大指數上周五高開低走,道指收報45,400點,按周下跌0.3%;標普500指數收報6,481點,按周微升0.3%;納指收報21,700點,按周升1.1%。

 

本周將公布的美國經濟數據中,最受矚目的就是週四的消費者物價指數(CPI)。投資者將重點關注通膨數據,以判斷未來降息的可能性以及關稅對物價的影響。除了CPI數據,週三的生產者物價指數(PPI)報告也可能揭示進口關稅的影響。上個月的PPI數據顯示,由於商品和服務成本飆升,美國生產者物價在七月創下三年來的最大漲幅。

 

在美國上訴法院裁定特朗普的大部分關稅非法後,關稅問題再次成為焦點。儘管特朗普政府已要求美國最高法院審理其維持大規模關稅的請求,但這項裁決為市場注入了新的不確定性。關稅收入損失可能加劇美國財政赤字,這是導致上周初長期美債殖利率大幅上升的原因之一。

 

說回港股,從成交和RSI等技術指標看,上升動力仍然不足,相信恆指會繼續在24800點和25700點之間波動,等待突破。

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