Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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2277 6666

恆指旗形整固

Monday, January 12, 2026 Views198

港股上周先升後回,恆指在上周二最高見到26858點,逼近27000點。周四一度失守26000點,低見25960點,周五收報26231點,相對前下跌107點,跌幅0.4%。國指和科指按周分別下跌1.3%和0.9%。滬深股市上周顯著造好,上證指數突破4100點,創逾十年新高,上周五報4,120點,按周上升逾3.8%。深成指創逾四年新高,上周五收報14,120點,按周升近4.4%。創板指數按周升近3.9%。滬深兩市成交在上周五突破3萬億元。內地12月居民消費價格指數(CPI)按年升0.8%符合預期,回升至2023年3月份以來最高。2025 全年 CPI 同比漲幅約為 0%,較 2024 年的 0.2% 略有下降,主因受上半年食品和能源價格的明顯拖累。 12月工業出廠者價格(PPI)按年跌1.9%,略好於市場預期的2%,降幅收斂至 15 個月來最小;環比上漲 0.2%,為 2024 年以來最高數值。2025 全年 PPI 同比下降 2.6%。上半年受外需不足影響降幅較大,下半年隨着新質生產力發展和擴內需政策發力,降幅明顯收窄。 另一方面,去年12月中國官方製造業 PMI 回升至 50.1,較上月大幅上升 0.9 個百分點,重回 50 榮枯線以上的擴張區間。標普全球中國製造業 PMI 亦呈現回穩趨勢,與官方數據相互印證,顯示中小企業景氣度有所改善。 

 

美股方面,雖然地緣政治局勢持續緊張,但就業數據遜於預期,提振減息預期,帶動股市造好,道指和標普500指數雙雙創出歷史新高。道指上周五收報49,504點,按周上升約2%。標普500指數和納指按周分別上升1%和2%。上周美國發布的核心經濟數據顯示,勞動力市場呈現「低增長、低失業」的矛盾特徵。其中,去年12月非農就業人口僅增加 5 萬人,低於市場預期的 6 萬人及前值經下修後的 5.6 萬至 6.4 萬人,是除經濟衰退年份外,近 20 多年來最弱的年度增長表現。不過,失業率卻意外地從前值的 4.6% 回落至 4.4%,優於預期。失業率下降部分反映了政府停擺結束後的勞動力重新配置。去年12月平均時薪環比上漲 0.3%,同比上漲 3.8%,顯示薪資壓力依然存在。另一方面,今年1 月密西根大學消費者信心指數升至 54,為自2025年9月以來最高水平,略高於市場預期的53.5,顯示消費者對關稅的擔憂有所減輕,且對自身財務狀況評價改善,但高物價和潛在的失業風險仍是主要顧慮。市場正觀望即將於本周二及周三發布的 12 月 CPI 和 PPI 數據,預計核心 CPI 將維持在 2.6% 左右的同比漲幅。就業市場雖表現疲軟,但薪資上漲帶動通脹粘性,目前市場預計聯儲局在 1 月底降息的機率僅約 10%

 

說回港股,上周評論指出若恒指企穩26000點,可望上試26530點,再下一個目標26880點。結果達到了26530點目標,卻差22點未能達到26880點目標。現時恆指似在形成上升旗形,只要不跌破25900,完成旗形整固後,仍有望再上試26880。

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