Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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250天線三次到底而破

Monday, March 23, 2026 Views135

上周港股表現疲軟,恆生指數累計連跌三周,創下近一年來最長跌浪,主要受中東局勢、科技股業績及美聯儲訊號影響。 恆指上周五收報 25,277,相對前周下跌188點或0.7%,國指和科指按周分別累跌1.1%和2.1%,而南向資金上周淨流出63.29億元。其中,上周五淨流出210.05億元,創史上第二高淨流出金額。

 

滬深股市上周也表現疲弱,上證指數跌破 4,000 點大關,創下年內新低,上周五收報3,957點,按周下跌3.4%。深成指按周下跌2.9%,創板指數累升1.3%。創業板在光伏與儲能板塊帶動下一度逆市衝高,但整體市場仍呈現「大盤弱、小盤相對強」的分化格局。 

 

美股表現動盪,三大指數連續第四週錄得跌幅。儘管週一受油價回落及科技股反彈帶動一度走高,但隨後中東衝突(如美國、以色列與伊朗局勢)升溫引發能源危機擔憂,加上聯儲局(Fed)維持利率不變並釋放鷹派訊號,拖累大市由升轉跌,標普 500 與納斯達克指數均跌至近六個月低位。標普 500 指數 (S&P 500)週五收報 6,506點,全週累計下跌約 1.9%納斯達克指數 週五收報 21,647,全週累計下跌約 2.1%道瓊斯工業平均指數 週五收報 45,577,全週累計下跌約 2.1%。 羅素 2000 指數 (Russell 2000) 週五收盤已較近期高點跌逾 10%,正式進入技術性回調區域。聯儲局宣佈維持聯邦基金利率在 3.50%–3.75% 區間不變。點陣圖顯示決策官員預計 2026 年底前僅有 1 次(25 個基點) 的降息空間。另外,聯儲局將 2026 年 GDP 增長預測上調至 2.4%,同時將 PCE 通脹及核心 PCE 通脹預測均上調至 2.7%。主席鮑威爾暗示今年降息空間有限,甚至有極小概率重啟加息。

 

經濟數據方面,美國2月生產物價指數(PPI)環比上漲0.7%,高於預期的0.3%,為七個月以來生產者價格的最大漲幅;同比漲幅加速至3.4%(預期為2.9%),為一年來最高水平。核心PPI也呈現類似趨勢,環比上漲0.5%(預期為0.3%),同比漲幅達3.9%,遠超預期。這表明潛在的價格壓力並未如預期般迅速緩解,令市場擔憂持續的通脹可能導致緊縮政策持續更長時間。截至 3月14日當週,首次申領失業救濟人數意外降至 20.5 萬人,低於預期的 21.5 萬人,顯示勞動力市場依然穩健。

 

說回港股,港股ADR預計恆指本周一低開674點,報24,602點,而恆指夜期亦已失守25000點。事實上,個人前周已預期會再下試250天移動平均線以至25000點,而要來的終於要來。這將是恆指在過去一個月內第三次下試250天線和25000點,而三次到底而破,下一步將向複式頭肩頂形態的量度下跌目標24500點推進。

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