Futures Focus

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衍生工具部 (Derivatives)
輝立期貨

Phone:
852 2277 6622

重要經濟資料與事件概覽

Friday, March 9, 2018 Views1253

週五(3月9日)亞洲時段,投資者需關注09:30公佈的中國2月CPI年率、中國2月PPI年率。歐洲時段,投資者需關注15:00公佈的德國1月季調後工業產出月率,17:30公佈的英國1月工業產出月率、英國1月季調後商品貿易帳。

週五稍後,美國2月份非農就業資料也將高調出爐,市場對此的普遍樂觀預期也提前助推了美元走強。鑒於特朗普發起貿易戰的最冠冕堂皇理由便是:為了保護美國本國勞工的就業權利,因此,如果非農資料顯示就業權相向好,那麼貿易戰的緊張情緒可望有所鬆弛。而與此同時,就業與薪資向好的前景則會進一步鞏固美聯儲本月晚些時候加息的信心。

歐元:

週四(3月8日),歐洲央行宣佈維持利率水準不變,並剔除“如果展望惡化,將增加購債規模或持續期限”的表述。市場一度將此舉視為歐銀將加速收緊貨幣政策的信號,提振歐元大漲。但此後,歐洲央行宣佈下調2019年歐元區的通脹預期。歐銀行長德拉基也表示,仍舊認為需要等待通脹持續上升的信號。此外,德拉基強調,下行風險與全球因素、外匯市場和貿易保護主義威脅有關。

鑒於近期貿易保護主義抬頭的擔憂不斷升溫,德拉基此番講話再度引起市場緊張,且與先前對歐銀立場解讀成較大落差,歐元因此快速回落,提振美元走強,並收復90整數關口。另一方面,特朗普關稅計畫又有新進展。特朗普於北京時間4點30分左右宣佈,對鋼鐵和鋁進口徵收關稅,但將推遲對加拿大與墨西哥的關稅,以待NAFTA的談判結果。而這一決定在特朗普宣佈前已近走漏風聲,美元兌加元聞訊快速跳水逾50點。

另需關注的則是美國國會可能採取行動,以阻止特朗普的關稅計畫。據美國共和黨參議員Flake表示,將馬上起草議案並儘快通過立法以廢除關稅政策。美國眾議院議長里安也表示,必須繼續對特朗普總統施壓以減少關稅。鑒於美國內部以及國際上對特朗普關稅計畫反對如潮,市場對潛在的全球貿易戰的擔憂似乎有所降溫,金價連續兩日下跌。

加元:

據Harbor Intelligence發佈的一份報告顯示,如果對加拿大進口鋁關稅實行赦免,將損害美國冶煉廠重啟產能,並導致關稅計畫失敗。

最後,如果關稅豁免僅限於加拿大,這可能意味著加拿大生產商將獲得高達3億美元的意外之財,因為關稅將導致美國中西部鋁價產生溢價。Vazquez表示,這將是一個明顯的漏洞。

上個月,美國商務部長羅斯表示,他向總統提出的職責建議是將國內鋁產能利用率提高到80%。如果加拿大獲得豁免,它就不會實現上述目標。

Risk disclosure statement and disclaimers of Trading Futures and Options
The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or options is substantial.  In some circumstances, you may sustain losses in excess of your initial margin funds.  Placing contingent orders, such as “stop-loss” or: stop-limit” orders, will not necessarily avoid loss.  Market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.  There is a possibility that any stop-loss order may be cancelled by a futures exchange due to various reasons including where orders are ‘out of price limits’ during a fluctuating market.  You should closely monitor your orders, as we may be unable to contact you in the event of cancellation.  You may be called upon at short notice to deposit additional margin funds.  If the required funds are not provided within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated.  You will remain liable for any resulting deficit in your account.  You should therefore study and understand futures contracts and options before you trade and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable in the light of your own financial position and investment objectives.  If you trade options you should inform yourself of exercise and expiration procedures and your rights and obligations upon exercise or expiry. You should study carefully the Disclosure Statements of Local Futures on our website

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