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昔日報告:
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傳消費刺激政策醞釀中,車股有望受益

近期大盤走勢較弱,但在九月中旬短短一周時間,港股上市的汽車股表現異常強勁,跑贏恒指。市場追捧車股的原因是正在醞釀當中的消費刺激政策,中國政府9月20日發佈了《關於完善促進消費體制機制進一步激發居民消費潛力的若干意見》(以下簡稱《意見》),提出促進汽車消費優化升級,鼓勵和引導農村居民增加汽車消費;鼓勵發展共用型、節約型、社會化的汽車流通體系,全面取消二手車限遷政策;實施好新能源汽車免征車輛購置稅、購置補貼等財稅優惠政策;積極發展汽車賽事等後市場,加強城市停車場和新能源汽車充電設施建設。同時提出要抓緊制定實施《完善促進消費體制機制的實施方案(2018-2020年)》,有關部門與各地區抓緊制定具體實施方案和細化政策措施,進一步激發居民消費潛力。

中國分別於2009/2010年、2015Q4/2017年實施過汽車消費刺激政策,均顯著提振了乘用車銷量,促使乘用車銷量同比增速2009/2010年達到達52.9%/33.3%,2016年增速由2015年7.2%提升至15.1%。而且目前國內一二線城市的汽車保有量已經漸趨飽和,而四五線城市和農村的汽車千人保有量僅爲50輛左右,仍有很大的提升空間。

今年以來受汽車購置稅優惠政策退出、貿易戰陰雲和宏觀經濟去杠杆等因素影響,國內汽車消費需求持續疲弱。今年三月起,國內汽車上牌資料已連續六月同比負增長,因此不排除有進一步的鼓勵汽車消費的政策出臺。時間上預計十月下旬將進入一個政策窗口,存在推出乘用車消費刺激政策的可能性。

如果政策預期落地,對國內自主品牌汽車會有明顯提振,長城汽車、長安汽車、吉利汽車,比亞迪汽車將明顯受益,其他如上汽集團、廣汽傳祺等也將受益,投資者可留意關注相關股票。

撰稿: 章晶 研究分析員
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