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昔日報告:
  20-08-2018 (星期一) 車市總體趨淡下,結構分化持續
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車市總體趨淡下,結構分化持續

事件:近日,中國汽車業協會發佈了中國七月汽車銷量數據,7月汽車產量和銷量分別達到204萬輛和189萬輛,按年分別下降0.7%和4%,按月分別下降10.8%和16.9%。今年前七個月,汽車產銷分別完成1610萬輛和1595.5萬輛,產銷量分別按年增長3.5%和4.3%。

點評:我們認為今年車市的放緩主要原因在於:去年購置稅優惠政策退出導致去年基數過大,以及中美貿易戰烏雲籠罩下,消費者信心受到經濟轉弱預期的打擊等因素。不過年銷兩千多萬輛汽車的龐大市場中,仍有一些細分子行業強于平均,具體到車企層面,結構性分化的趨勢亦更分明。分子行業來看,7月乘用車銷量為159萬輛,同比下降5.9%。其中,轎車增長4.6%;SUV 7.3%;MPV下降13.8%;交叉型乘用車下降21.4%。商用車方面,整體按年增長3.3%。其中重卡下降17.2%和中卡下降40.5%,微卡增長60.3%,輕卡增長10.9%。

但是值得一提的是,新能源汽車表現出強勁的增長動力,增長了47.7%。其中純電動增長33.6%;插電式混增長101.1%。今年前7個月,新能源汽車大幅增長了97%。純電動增82.4%;插電式混增160.9%。在新能源汽車越來越普及的趨勢下,我們建議投資者積極關注其中的佼佼者,把握行業未來發展趨勢,比如比亞迪(1211.HK),上汽集團(600104.CH),吉利汽車(175.HK)。

撰稿: 章晶研究分析員
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