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昔日報告:
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一月重卡迎開門紅,上半年高景氣無虞

根據第一商用車網數據,1月國內重卡行業預計銷量18萬輛,同比+54%,環比+64%,超出市場預期,創歷史1月銷量新高。重卡市場已經是連續第十個月刷新紀錄 - 從2020年4月直到今年1月,重卡市場每個月的銷量都刷新了當月銷量紀錄,創下月度銷量新高。

近四年來,中國重卡市場銷量一路走高,2017年起年銷量始終保持在110萬輛以上,2020年更是達到了162萬輛的全球歷史新高,同比增長了38%;2021年1月再度迎來開門紅,為上半年的重卡市場保持高景氣打下基礎。究其原因,我們認為主要源自于1)宏觀經濟持續回暖帶動物流需求旺盛,2)下半年柴油車排放標準升級,車企促銷及渠道鋪貨的力度都非常大,3)超載治理和國三車淘汰仍在推進,促使用戶購買合規新車型。

微觀層面上,一月各大重卡企業均收穫佳績,一汽解放(6.95萬輛,同比+32%)、東風公司(3.16萬輛,同比+83%),中國重汽(3.05萬輛,同比+130%)、陝汽集團(2萬輛,同比+98%)、福田汽車(1.4萬輛,同比+57%)等龍頭車企表現亮眼。

我們預計2021年重卡月銷量將呈現前高後低走勢,全年銷量同比有所下滑,至120-130萬輛的區間。建議投資者關注重卡消費升級的受益標的濰柴動力(2338HK)和中國重汽(3808HK)

撰稿: 章晶研究分析員
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