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昔日報告:
  23-03-2020 (星期一) 油價重挫,航空股出現交易性機會
  02-03-2020 (星期一) 疫情加快汽車行業扶持政策出臺
  17-02-2020 (星期一) 疫情影響下線上服務需求爆發,留意遠程辦公板塊機會
  03-02-2020 (星期一) 新能源汽車刹車收官,預計來年平穩增長
  20-01-2020 (星期一) 第二批國家組織藥品集採啟動,留意醫藥板塊機會
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油價重挫,航空股出現交易性機會

今年新冠疫情和减產協議破裂兩大利空因素衝擊,國際油價近期大幅暴跌。3月19日,美國WTI原油期貨自一月份62美元/桶左右的高點,累計下跌幅度達56%,至27.8美元/桶,最低跌至20.5美元/桶。布倫特自高點累計下跌53%,至32美元/桶,最低觸及26.35美元/桶,價格腰斬。

燃油成本是航空公司總成本中最大一塊,占比達到30%-40%,對航空公司的盈利影響彈性巨大。油價大跌使航空公司現金流和運營成本壓力大幅緩解。可以預見的是,即使疫情過後,全球經濟不可避免會進入一段低迷期,來消化疫情對各國經濟的衝擊和各國政府的大手筆救助,需求低迷將導致油價中期內維持低位徘徊。

從需求面來看,由于中國疫情基本得到控制,國內航空公司正在有序複航複飛,只要需求的邊際改善力度大于油價從極低水平反彈的力度,航司的業績就處于一個改善的通道之中。3月7日國內航班執行率已經接近45%。

另一方面,國家出臺多項紓困政策,包括免繳民航發展基金、减半徵收社保、國際航綫補貼、機場飛機起降費收費優惠等政策,預計國內各航企將受益于成本的繼續下降。個股上,我們推薦關注吉祥航空(603885.CH)、春秋航空(601021.CH)。風險在于人民幣匯率的飈升。

撰稿: 章晶 研究分析員
電話:
+86 21 51699400-103

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zhangjing@phillip.com.cn
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