Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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15400不宜失守

Monday, February 5, 2024 Views1967

上周評論指指出,恆指由1月22日14794低位回升超過1400點,升勢略嫌過急,若未能企穩16000點,或將作出回調,先回試10天線的支持.恆指在上周一再挑戰16000點,最高見到16258,是自1月22日低位14794回升以來的最高位,但仍然未能企穩16000點.之後反覆回落,周三最低見到15411,周五收報15534,按周下跌2.6%.國指和科指按周分別下跌2.6%和4.5%.滬深股市面對更大沽壓,上證綜指上周五最低見到2666,收報2730,按周下跌6.2%;深證成指上周五最低見到7840,收報8055,周跌幅達8.1%.經濟數據方面,財新中國1月製造業採購經理指數(PMI)為50.8,與去年12月相同,優於預期的50.6,亦優於官方製造業PMI,並連續3個月處於擴張區間.不過,經濟面臨的困難和壓力依然較大,不利因素和不確定性仍然偏多,需求弱於供給、就業壓力大、市場預期不強的格局尚未發生根本扭轉.

美股上周震盪上揚,聯儲局一如預期維持利率不變,主席鮑威爾表示3月減息機會不大,一度令美股在上周三急挫,但迅即止跌回升,道指和標準普爾500指數上周五雙雙再創收市新高,按周同升1.4%,而納指按周則升1.1%.上周公布的經濟數據顯示美國勞動市場維持強勁,其中,去年12月JOLTS職位空缺達902.6萬個,遠超市場預期的875萬個;今年1月份非農職位增加35.5萬個,遠超市場預期的18萬個,失業率維持於3.7%,低於預期的3.8%.就業數據表現強勁,雖然令減息預期稍為降溫,但亦降低了市場對經濟可能出現衰退的憂慮,對股市有利.

說回港股,恆指在上周三再次跌穿10天線,但守住15400,仍可視為由14794低位反彈超過1400點後的回調整固.但若失守15400,將意味反彈告一段落,恆指將再下試甚或下破15000.

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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