Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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整固後料再上試24500

Monday, June 30, 2025 Views401

中東局勢降溫。美國商務部長盧特尼克表示,美中兩國接近達成貿易協議的框架,又說預期很快與10個主要貿易夥伴達成協議。港股恆指上周一至周三連升3日,之後呈現回吐,周五收報24,284點,但相對前周仍累升753點或3.2%。國企指數收8,762點,按周上升2.8%。恒生科技指數收報5,341點,按周上升4.1%。北水上周五交易總成交額1,538億元,佔當日成交總額2751億元超過一半。滬深股市上周亦造好,上證指數按周升近2%,而深成指則升3.7%。

6月貸款市場報價利率(LPR)維持不變,1年期LPR為3% ,5年期以上LPR為3.5% ,符合市場預期。預計LPR利率下半年仍有下調空間,特別是與房貸利率掛鉤的5年期LPR利率。考慮到下半年穩樓市政策需進一步加力,預計人民銀行下半年可能通過單獨引導5年期以上LPR報價利率下行方式,推動房貸利率更大幅度下調。


美股方面,標普500指數和納指上周雙雙創新高,但美國總統特朗普表示,美國立刻結束與加拿大的貿易談判,以回應加拿大對科技公司徵收數位服務稅,並威脅將徵收新關稅,引發市場對貿易前景的擔憂,令美股上周五走勢略見反覆。總結一周,道指升3.8%。標普500指數升3.5%。納指升4.2%。經濟數據方面,美國公布第一季GDP第二次修正值,按季變幅由跌0.2%下修至跌0.5%,是三年來第一次出現季度收縮,主因受到消費支出和出口的重大下修影響。另外,聯儲局通脹指標的5月份PCE物價指數按年和按月分別升2.3%和0.1%,圴符合預期。期內核心PCE物價指數按年升2.7%,高於預期的2.6%;按月則升0.2%,亦高於預期的0.1%。就業數據方面,截至6月21日止當周,美國首次失業救助申請數量從前一周下降1萬人,降至23.6萬人,低於市場預期的24.3萬人,不過仍然大幅高於今年的平均水平,顯示美國勞動市場出現放緩跡象。消費信心方面,諮商會6月消費者信心指數在從5月份的98.4降至93,低於預期的99.8。不過,6月密歇根大學消費者信心指數終值卻從初值60.5上修至60.7,超預期,並遠高於5月份的52.2,為六個月來首次上升,主要受惠於經濟多方面廣泛改善。本周市場將關注6月非農就業和ADP小非農數據、製造業和服務業PMI、工廠訂單和耐用品訂單等數據。其中,6月非農職位預測新增12萬個(前值為13.9萬);失業率預測從前值4.2%上升至4.3%。


說回港股,恆指上周三最高見到24533,但當日9天相對強弱指數只有65,上升動力略嫌不足。本周料將在整固後再上試24500,能否突破24500並進一步挑戰今年3月高位24874,就要看RSI和成交等動力指標是否進一步增強。

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