Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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升穿或跌穿10天和20天線意義不大

Monday, September 1, 2025 Views222

港股上周衝高回落,恆指在上周一最高見到25918點,逼近26000關。之後反覆回軟並下破25000點,上周四最低見到24808點,周五收市報25078點,按周下跌1%。國指收報8,947點,按周下跌1.5%,兩個指數都結束了連續三周的升勢。科指收報5674,按周上升0.5%,連升四周。北水在上周四淨流出204.41億元,為有史以來單日最大淨賣出額。8月收官,恆指月漲1.2%,國指漲0.7%,科指漲4.1%,三大指數均錄得月線四連陽。

 

滬深股市表現強勢,上證指數上周五收報3,857點,按周上升0.8%。深成指收報12,696點,按周升4.4%。創業板指數收報2,890,周升幅達7.8%。滬深兩市成交在上周一和周三都突破30000億。總結8月,上證指數累升近8%,連升4個月;深成指升逾15%,跑贏全球股市。人民幣持續走高,兌美元中間價上周五升至7.103。人民銀行8月調高人民幣中間價0.65%,為去年9月以來最大升幅。

 

美股表現也不弱,道指與標普500指數上周四齊齊創新高。不過,投資者在美國勞動節長周末(本周一勞動節假期美股休市)前先行獲利,美股周五下跌。總結一周,道指及納指都跌約0.2%,標普500指數跌0.1%。以整個8月計,標普500指數升1.9%,為連續第四個月上升。道指累漲3.2%,納指升1.6%。經濟數據方面,美國第二季GDP年增長率為3.3%,是從第一季度的0.5%收縮大幅反彈,也高於首次估計的3%增幅。7月美國耐用品訂單按月下降2.8%,延續經修訂的6月9.4%的下滑,但略低於市場預期的4%降幅。數據反映在企業於5月提前進口以避免支付美國政府通過的高額關稅後,訂單持續處於疲軟狀態。此外,截至8月23日的一周,首次申請失業救濟金的人數較前一周的八周高位減少5,000至22.9萬,略低於市場預期的23萬。8月密西根大學消費者信心指數下跌至58.2,低於前一個月的五個月高位61.7,比初步估計的58.6修正下調,且遠低於市場初始預期的62,是四個月以來消費者信心指數的首次下跌,主要原因是對通脹的擔憂加劇以及耐用商品的購買條件急劇惡化。

 

本周市場將聚焦周五公布的8月非農就業數據,預測新增職位7.8萬份(前值增7.3萬),失業率預計將從4.2%上升至4.3%。在市場看來,聯儲局9月會議降息幾成定局,但後續走向將視乎8月就業數據。說回港股,恆指上周跌穿10天和20天移動平均線,上周五港股ADR預計恆指本周一高開387點,報25466點,有望重越10天和20天線。事實上,近期恆指在這兩條平均線上下波動,升穿和跌穿都意義不大,反而最值得關注的是50天線(24781點),若然失守,將下試24350點。

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