Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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量度上升目標28000點

Monday, October 6, 2025 Views326

上周評論看錯了,原以為26000點會最終失守,但結果是力保不失,而在國慶節假期後恆指一舉升越27000點,上周四最高見到27381點。周五呈現回吐,恆指一度下破27000點,收報27141點,但按周仍大漲1013點,升幅3.9%。國指按周上升3.8%,科指周升幅更達到6.8%。A股在國慶假期前反覆上揚,總結9月,上證指數漲0.5%,深成指漲6.5%,創業板指漲12%創三年多新高。

 

經濟數據方面,今年首8個月,全國規模以上工業企業實現利潤總額4.69萬億元人民幣,按年增長0.9%。單計8月份,規模以上工業企業利潤增長20.4%。9月官方製造業PMI升至49.8,高於市場預期的49.6,按月上升0.4個百分點,顯示製造業景氣水平繼續改善。非製造業PMI回落至50 ,比上月下降0.3個百分點,略低於市場預期的50.2,位於臨界點。綜合PMI微升至50.6,比上月上升0.1個百分點,持續高於臨界點,表明企業生產經營活動總體擴張繼續加快。9月中國標普製造業PMI升至51.2,高於市場預期的50.2,按月升0.7個百分點。標普服務業PMI由前值53輕微回落至52.9,仍勝市場預期降至52.6。標普綜合PMI升至52.5,按月升0.6個百分點。

 

中共中央政治局上周一召開會議,研究制定國民經濟和社會發展第十五個五年規劃重大問題。中共中央總書記習近平主持會議。會議決定,中國共產黨第二十屆中央委員會第四次全體會議於10月20日至23日在北京召開。另國家發改委稱內地經濟運行仍面臨不少風險和挑戰,將適時加力實施宏觀政策。

 

美國政府停擺令政府延後公布經濟數據,但對股市沒有構成太大影響,道指上周五一度突破47,000點,最高見到47049點,收報46,758點,按周上升約1%。標普500指數和納指按周亦升約1%。非官方數據顯示,8月美國職位空缺增加1.9萬個,達到722.7萬個,高於經上調後的7月720.8萬個職位空缺,符合市場預期。Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.數據顯示,美國僱主在今年9月宣布裁員54,064人,為三個月以來的最低水平,低於8月的85,979人,且按年減25.8%。但就第三季度而言,美國僱主計劃裁員總數達20.21萬人,為2020年以來第三季度的最高水平。9月ADP私營企業職位減少3.2萬,而8月的裁員規模經修正後為3,000個,相對於市場預計為增加50,000個,是自2023年3月以來的最大就業下降,亦是自2020年疫情以來,私營部門首次連續兩個月裁員。

 

9月美國ISM製造業PMI上升至49.1,高於8月的48.7,亦略高於市場預期的49,但該指數已連續七個月處於收縮區間。9月美國標普全球製造業PMI降至52 與初值一致,但低於前一個月的53。9月ISM)服務業PMI從8月的52降至50,遠低於市場預期的51.7,顯示服務業陷入停滯。同時,價格壓力加劇,價格指數升至69.4,為自2022年10月以來第二高。標普全球(S&P Global)美國綜合PMI在9月份錄得53.9,低於8月份的54.6,為三個月以來最慢的增長速度。服務業商業活動指數在9月份錄得54.2,較8月份的54.5略降。綜合上述數據顯示美國經濟呈現放緩跡象,強化市場對年底前聯儲局將減息半厘的預期。

 

說回港股,恆指在26000點和27000點的1000點區間內波動,維持了一段時間,現在成功突破27000點,量度上升目標可見28000點,而中途目標為27500點。

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