Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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恆指會跌多少?

Monday, October 13, 2025 Views655

中美貿易關係急轉彎,筆者也連續兩個星期看錯市。原以為恆指突破了27000點後可以繼續上行,甚至指出量度上升目標可見28000點。結果恆指未能企穩27000點,而且連跌五日,上周五最低見到26,247點,收報26,290點,按周累跌850點或3.1%。國指收報9,358點,按周累跌300點或3.1%;恒生科技指數收報6,259點,按周累跌363點或5.5%。A股假後復市北水重臨,但對港股幫助不大。

 

上證指數在上周四一度上破3900點,最高見到3933點,但未能企穩3900點以上,周五收報3897點,相對國慶長假前微升15點。深成指相對長假前下跌171點,上周五收報13355點。

 

受到中美貿易關係緊張影響,美股上周五應聲急挫,有稱為恐慌指數的VIX升至超過20,納指跌勢最急,跌幅達3.6%或820點,以近全日最低位22204點收市,跌820點至22,204。道指跌878點或1.9%,報45,479點;同樣以近全日最低位收市。標普500指數下挫182點或2.7%,收報6,552點,創下4月初特朗普宣布「對等關稅」市場大調整後最大單日跌幅。總結一星期,周五的下跌令三大指數由升轉跌,幅度全逾2%。此外,美國政府停擺已進入第12天,並已開始實施聯邦裁員行動。此次裁員是美國現代歷史上政府資金中斷期間首次出現的大規模正式解僱,與以往政府臨時停擺時以無薪休假形式處理不同。部分民主黨眾議員批評裁員行為「不道德、不正當,而且可能違法」。法院將於10月16日就聯邦工會申請禁止裁員的請求舉行聽證。

 

恒指夜市期指失守25000點關口,收報24968點,跌1314點。反映中概股表現的納斯達克中國金龍指數大跌520點或6.1%,收報8018點。港股ADR預計恆指本周一低開1,090點 報25,200點。

 

4月初特朗普宣布「對等關稅」後,恆指由當時高位24874點下挫至19260點,一共下跌了5614點,跌幅為22.6%。如果這次參照4月的走勢,以同樣下跌點數計,恆指將見到21767點;以同樣跌幅計,將見到21192點。當然實際會跌多少,還看兩週後的亞太經合組織(APEC)峯會舉行前中美關係會否出現緩和,還是雙方祭出更嚴厲的反制措施。事實上,恆指也已好一段時間未出現10%或以上的調整。以由高位調整10%計,起碼會見到24640左右。

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