Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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三線匯聚缺乏方向

Monday, November 10, 2025 Views863

港股上周窄幅波動,缺乏方向,恆指最高和最低分別見到26490和25496,高低波幅不足1000點,上周五收報26,241點,相比前周上升了335點或1.3%;國指收報9267點,按周上升1.1%;科指收報5837點,按周下跌1.2%,是連續第二周下跌。

 

A股上周表現靠穩,上證指數、深成指和創業板指按周分別上升1.1%、0.2%和0.7%。經濟數據方面,中國10月進出口以美元計總值按年跌0.3%。當中,出口總值跌1.1%,低於預期增2.9%;進口總值升1%,也低於預期增2.7%。貿易順差900.7億美元,預期順差為968.5億美元。中國出口商為避開美國高關稅,採取提前出貨策略,此現象於10月終告消退。隨貿易戰暫歇一年,出口將趨於常態。另一方面,中國10月CPI(居民消費價格)同比上漲0.2%,較前值回升0.5個百分點,好於預期下跌0.1%,環比漲幅較前值擴大0.1個百分點至0.2%。核心CPI同比上漲1.2%,漲幅連續6個月擴大,創去年3月以來新高。10月PPI(工業生產者出廠價格)同比下降2.1%,降幅收窄0.2個百分點,好於預期下降2.2%;PPI環比由9月持平轉為上漲0.1%,為年內首次上漲。擴內需政策持續顯效,疊加國慶和中秋長假,是CPI改善的主因。在政策加碼及「反內捲」持續推進環境中,CPI同比有望延續溫和回升勢頭,PPI同比降幅亦將繼續收窄。

 

市場憂慮AI股估值高,疊加美國政府停擺仍未結束,美股上周承壓,全周計,納指累挫逾3%;道指及標普500指數跌逾1%。經濟數據方面,10月美國私營企業新增4.2萬個就業崗位,高於市場預測的2.5萬個崗位,中止自7月以來的持續下滑。不過,裁員人數卻持續增加。據Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc.統計,美國僱主10月宣布裁員153,074人,為自2003年以來該月份的最高總數。今年截至10月,僱主已宣布裁員1,099,500人,為疫情以來的同期最高總數,比2024年全年761,358人增加44%。此外,聯邦政府停擺逾1個月,消費者開始擔憂對經濟可能造成負面影響。11月密歇根大學消費者信心指數初值跌至50.3,創近3年半新低,低於10月的53.6,並低於市場預期的53.2。

 

說回港股,恆指10天、20天和50天移動平均線三線匯聚,仍未擺脫上落市格局,要待恆指上越26600點或下破25600點,走勢才會有突破。

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