Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666

考驗50天線支持

Monday, May 18, 2026 Views252

恒生指數在上周初受到樂觀氣氛拉動及科技股業績預期支持下,於周四盤中一度創下兩個月新高,高見 26,844 點。然而,受全球通脹擔憂升溫,以及市場高度關注的「習特會」缺乏實質突破影響,加上部分科技龍頭財報後出現利好套現,大市回吐壓力驟增,恆指失守二萬六大關,上周五收報 25,962 點,全周累計下跌 431 點,跌幅約 1.6%。國指和科指按周分別下跌2.2%3.2%

 

滬深股市上周呈現衝高回落、高位震盪的走勢,周初在科技股大漲的樂觀情緒帶動下,創業板指於上周三歷史性突破 4,000 點大關。然而,三大指數上周四和周五連續兩日下挫,上證指數全周累計下跌約 1.1%深成指按周微跌2點,而創業板指按周仍升1.7%。上周 A 股交投極其狂熱,周四兩市成交額衝上 3.36 萬億元人民幣,創近期高位,周五在市場大幅滑落下依然保持在 3.34 萬億元 的歷史級天量水平,顯示好淡雙方在高位爭持激烈。

 

經濟數據方面,4月新增人民幣貸款淨減少約100億元人民幣,市場預期為增加3000億元。其中,住戶端短期與中長期貸款需求依舊偏弱。另外,4月新增社會融規模為 6200億元,低於預期的1.5萬億元;4月末社融存量同比增速放緩至 7.8%。數據反映國內實體融資需求在二季度初出現季節性放緩。貨幣供應量方面,4月廣義貨幣(M2同比增長 8.6%狹義貨幣(M1同比增長 5%,M2-M1 剪刀差為 3.6 個百分點,較上月微幅擴大,顯示資金傾向於定期化留存。通脹數據方面,4月居民消價格(CPI )同比上漲 1.2%,環比由跌轉升 0.3%。4月 工業出廠價格(PPI )同比大漲 2.8%,環比亦急升 1.7%,主要受輸入性通脹驅動。4月PPI-CPI 剪刀差擴大至 +1.6%,反映上游的成本壓力尚未完全傳導至下游終端消費品,製造業利潤空間仍受到一定擠壓。本周將發布4月份工業增加值、社會消費品零售總額、固定資產投資及城鎮失業率等重磅實體經濟指標。

 

美股上周亦呈現衝高回落態勢,因通脹憂慮推升美國國債孳息率,10年期國債孳息率升破4.5%至4.6%,2年期孳息率升至4.08%,而油價則受中東局勢再度緊張支持而上揚。

標普500按周升0.1%,連續第七周錄得升幅。納指按周跌0.1%,結束連升六周走勢。道指按周跌0.2%。

 

上周公布的美國經濟數據呈現「通脹壓力全面超預期飆升、消費維持韌性、製造業大幅回暖」的強勁特徵,引發了市場對美聯儲長期維持高利率的憂慮。4月消費者物價指數(CPI同比上漲 3.81%,高於預期的3.70%及前值3.26%);核心 CPI 同比上漲 2.75%,顯示高物價已開始向非能源領域蔓延。4月生產者物價指數(PPI同比暴增 6%,高於預期的4.9%;核心 PPI 同比增幅亦達 5.2%,預示未來數月終端消費品仍有漲價壓力。另外,4月進口價格同比上漲 4.2%,出口價格同比大漲 8.8%。4月零售銷售環比增長 0.5%,完全符合市場預期。其中,受到油價上漲刺激,加油站銷售額環比大增 2.8%。4月工業產值環比增長 0.7%,終結上月的 -0.3%跌勢,高於市場預期的0.3%升幅。就業數據方面,截至5月9日當周初次申請失業救濟金人數為 21.1 萬人,略高於預期的20.5萬人,但依舊處於 20 萬至 25 萬人的歷史低位區間,顯示勞動力市場依然穩固。

 

說回港股,恒指上周四衝高至 26,844 後未能企穩,周五反轉放量暴跌 426 點,成交增至 3,253 億港元,技術上形成了高位見頂形態,顯示 26,800 點上方阻力甚大。現時恆指跌穿 10天、20天和100天移動平均線,本周將考驗50天均線(25765點)的支撐。若此線失守,短線回調將演變為波段修正,恆指可能下試25500點以至25250點的支持。

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