Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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恆指下試5月低位

Monday, June 8, 2026 Views308

恆指下試5月低位


上周港股呈現「先衝高、後回吐」的震盪格局,恒生指數在上周二一度突破26000點,最高見到26045點。之後反覆下行,周五更失守25000點,收報24,961點,相對前周下跌221點,跌幅0.9%,連跌第四周。國指上周微升11點,結來連三周跌勢。科指微升2點,連升第二周。滬深股市上周走勢與港股高度同步,整體呈現衝高回落態勢。總結一周,上證指數跌逾1%,深成指跌1.7%,創業板指跌近2%。

 

經濟數據方面,中國5月RatingDog製造業PMI下降0.4至51.8但仍勝預期的51.4,連續 6 個月維持在擴張區間。另一方面,中國5月RatingDog服務業PMI從4月的52.6升至54.4,並高於市場預期的52.3,顯示服務業活動始於2023年1月的當前擴張期繼續延長,而且創下三個月來最急劇擴張。中國5月RatingDog綜合產出指數錄得54,高於4月的53.1,綜合產出增速為2月後最快,並且創下兩年來次高紀錄。在服務業活動帶動下,整體增速較4月加快,製造業產出則繼續保持穩健擴張。本周將公布5月通脹和外貿數據,其中,5月PPI年率預測升3.8%,前值升2.8%。5月CPI年率預測升1.3%;前值升1.2%。至於5月份外貿數據,市場普遍預測出口按年增速將維持在較高水平,但未來可能面臨外需降溫的放緩壓力。這主要是由於 2025 年同期基數偏低,加上全球 AI 投資熱潮持續推動電子科技產品的出口。然而,5月底公布的官方製造業 PMI 中,新出口訂單指數已跌回收縮區間,為未來的外貿前景發出了警號。

 

美股上演劇烈震盪,三大指數在上周初創下歷史新高後於周五大幅下挫,主要原因是美國5月非農就業數據遠超預期,導致市場對聯儲局加息預期升溫,疊加晶片股龍頭業績和指引不及預期,引發科技股獲利。總結一周,納指周跌4.7%,道指跌0.3%,標普500跌2.6%,終止連續九周升勢。5月美國非農就業職位增加172,000個,幾乎較預期的88,000個高出一倍。4月增幅被上修至179,000,而3月亦被上修至214,000。強勁的就業市場預示通脹壓力短期內難以消除,根據CME FedWatch工具,市場對12月加息25個基點的機會率由一周前的36%升至43%,推動美國國債孳息率上揚,10年期和2年期債息上周五分別升至4.55%和4.17%。市場將關注本周三發布的5月CPI通脹數據,將直接決定聯儲局在 6 月中旬(16-17日)議息會議上的政策基調。還有6月密歇根大學消費者信心指數初值,市場預期為44.8,與前值一樣。同時需關注報告中的「1年期/5年期通脹預期」,若消費者對未來通脹預期走高,將對債市與美股科技股帶來沽壓。

 

說回港股,恆指再度失守25000點,上周五收市指數創自今年3月31日以來的新低,短期很大機會再下試5月28日低位24727點。若然失守,下一支持位將為24400點,回升阻力位依次將25250點和25500點。

 

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