Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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考驗能否企穩24000

Monday, July 14, 2025 Views225

港股上周窄幅波動,恆生指數在上周一最低見到23713,周五最高見到24506,全周高低波幅793點,周五收報24140,相對前周上升224點或0.9%。國企指數周五收報8688,按周上升0.9%;恒生科技指數收報5248,按周上升0.6%。滬深股市上周明顯造好,上證指數上周五最高見到3555,收報3510,按周上升1.1%。深成指收報10696,按周上升1.8%。

經濟數據方面,中國6月居民消費價格(CPI)按年上漲0.1%,為連續下降四個月後轉漲,主要受工業消費品價格有所回升影響。CPI按月下降0.1%,降幅比5月收窄0.1個百分點。然而, 6月全國工業生產者出廠價格(PPI)按年下降3.6%,降幅較5月擴大0.3個百分點,並大於市場預期的3.2%;按月則下降0.4%,降幅與5月相同。影響PPI按月下降主因內地部分原材料製造業價格季節性下行、綠電增加帶動能源價格下降及一些出口佔比較高的行業價格承壓所致。本周將公布外貿和「三頭馬車」經濟數據,其中,次季GDP年率預測升5.1%,前值升5.4%;6月社會消費品零售總額年率預測升5.2%,前值升6.4%;6月規模以上工業增加值年率預測升5.6%,前值升5.8%;上半年城鎮固定資產投資年率預測升3.6%,首5個月升3.7%。


美股上周先升後回,標普500指數和納指雙雙創出歷史新高後回吐。美國總統特朗普提出對大多數貿易夥伴加徵更高全面關稅,為市場帶來壓力。不過,市場對特朗普的關稅威脅大致保持冷靜,未如4月宣布「對等關稅」後的暴瀉。道指上周五收報44,371,總結一周跌1%。標普500指數報6,259,全星期跌0.3%。納指報20,585點,全周跌0.08%。經濟數據方面,七月第一周首次申請失業救濟金人數減少5,000人至22.7萬人,低於市場預期的增加至23.5萬人,是初次申請人數連續第四次下降,達到七周以來的最低,反映美國勞動市場在高利率和經濟不確定性下仍然相對強健。本周美國經濟數據包括CPI和PPI、進出口物價、零售銷售、工業產出、新屋動工和密歇根大學消費者信心指數。


說回港股,恆指雖重越24000,但仍受制於24500阻力,能否企穩24000以至10天和20天線仍有待考驗,目前兩線分別處於24066和23987水平。

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