Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666

量度上升目標27100

Monday, September 15, 2025 Views46

量度上升目標27100

 

港股上周走勢有所突破,恆指上越26000點,上周五最高見到26586四年高,收報26388點,按周上升970點或3.8%。國指收9,365點,按周升3.4%。科指收5,989點,按周升5.3%。滬深股市方面,但全星期計,上證指數和深證成指扭轉了前周的跌勢,按周分別上升1.5%和2.7%;創業板指數按周升2.1%,連升6星期。

 

經濟數據方面,8月份全國居民消費價格(CPI)按年下降0.4%,低於市場預期下跌0.2%,按月持平。8月核心CPI按年上漲0.9%,漲幅比上月擴大0.1個百分點,漲幅連續四個月擴大。8月全國工業生產者出廠價格(PPI)按年下降2.9%,符合市場預期,降幅比上月收窄0.7個百分點,為今年3月份以來首次收窄。按月由下降0.2%轉為持平,結束連續八個月下行態勢。工業生產者購進價格按年下降4%,按月持平。 

 

另外,人民銀行公布,今年首8個月新增人民幣貸款為13.46萬億元人民幣。按人行數據計算,單計8月新增5891億元,雖然扭轉7月貸款萎縮,不過增幅低於市場預期的7009億元,較去年同期減少34.76%,來自家庭和企業的新增貸款均較去年同期為低。社融方面,人行公布首8個月社融增量26.56萬億元,據此計算單計8月增量為2.57萬億元,高於市場預期的2.5萬億元,不過較去年同期的3.03萬億元少約15%。截至8月底,廣義貨幣(M2)餘額按年增長8.8%,高於市場預期的8.6%,M1貨幣餘額按年增6%,符合市場預期。M2保持高增長,反映金融對實體經濟支持力度很大;近年實體經濟融資渠道多樣化,企業債券、政府債券和非金融企業境內股票融資等直接融資佔比穩步提升,社融規模、M2增速較新增貸款,更能全面反映金融總量。本周一中國將公布「三頭馬車」經濟數據,而中國國務院副總理何立峰將於9月14日至17日率團赴西班牙與美方舉行會談,雙方將討論關稅措施、濫用出口管制及TikTok等經貿問題。如有利好消息,或可推動上證指數和深成指分別突破3900點和13000點。

 

美股方面,受減息預期支持,三大指數上周齊齊創歷史新高。全周計,標普500指數累升1.6%,道指升1%,而納指則漲2%。美國8月CPI數據顯示,通脹整體保持溫和態勢。儘管8月CPI同比小幅回升至2.9%,但核心CPI同比和環比均持平並符合預期。 9月第一周初次申請失業救濟金人數增加27,000,達到26.3萬,是自2021年10月以來的最高位,且遠高於市場預期的23.5萬。數據與自本月初以來發佈的一系列勞動力市場調查一致,顯示美國勞動市場正在惡化,加強了市場的減息預期。本周焦點除了聯儲局的議息會議外,還有零售銷售、工業產出、商業庫存、新屋動工、諮商會經濟領先指標等數據。

 

說回港股,恆指終於突破26000點,量度上升目標可見27100點,回落支持分別為26200點和25800點。

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
Top of Page
Contact Us
Please contact your account executive or call us now.
Research Department
Tel : (852) 2277 6846
Fax : (852) 2277 6565
Email : businessenquiry@phillip.com.hk

Enquiry & Support
Branches
The Complaint Procedures
About Us
Phillip Securities Group
Join Us
Phillip Network
Phillip Post
Phillip Channel
Latest Promotion
新闻稿
E-Check
Login
Investor Notes
Free Subscribe
Contact Us