Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事
見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市，可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家，並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉，並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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「特習會」對港股影響的情景分析

Monday, October 27, 2025

290

上周港股很努力地收復前周的失地，恆指在上周二最高見到26367點，終於補回了10月13日的下跌裂口，之後在26000點水平爭持，周五收報26,160點，按周上升3.6%。國指和科指按周分別上升3.9%和5.2%，三大指數都結束了連續兩周的跌勢。中美在馬來西亞啓動第五輪經貿磋商，白宮確認下周四韓國的「特習會」，為港股帶來支持。

A股上周也造好，上證指數上周五收報3,950點，按周上升2.9%，創十年高。深成指按升4.7%，創業板指周升幅更超逾8%。中國第三季國內生產總值(GDP)按年增長4.8%，略高於預期增4.7%。首三季國內生產總值按年增長5.2%，高於預期的5.1%。「三頭馬車」數據一好一壞一及格。其中，9月規模以上工業生產按年增6.5% ，遠勝預期增5%。9月社會消費品零售總額按年增長3%，符合預期。然而，首三季全國固定資產投資按年下降0.5%，差於預期增0.1%，主要受首三季全國房地產開發投資按年下降13.9%（預期降13.1%）拖累；其中，住宅投資下降12.9%。

美股方面，雖然政府停擺仍未結束，但場憧憬「特習會」，迭加通脹數據溫和，提振聯儲局本周減息預期，美股三大指數上周五均則收市新高。道指首以收於47000點以上，報47,207點。標普500指數逼近6800點，收報6,791點。納指收報23,204點。總結一周，道指升2.2%，標普500指數升1.9%，納指升2.3%。

9月美國消費者物價指數(CPI)年率上升至3%，為自1月以來的最高水平，高於8月的2.9%，但低於市場預期的3.1%。按月計，CPI上漲0.3%，低於8月的0.4%及0.4%的預測。年度核心通脹率從3.1%下降至3%，市場原本預期將維持在3.1%。其他經濟數據方面，標普全球美國PMI綜合產出指數從9月份的53.9上升至10月份的54.8。為自7月份以來最高水平，顯示增長速度加快。不過，10月密歇根大學消費者信心指數卻從初值的55下修至53.6，為五個月以來最低水平，9月為55.1。一年期通脹預期由4.7%降至4.6%，與初次估計基本一致；五年期通脹預期則由3.7%上修至3.9%，而前一個月同為3.7%。

說回港股，恆指在26000水平爭持，暫仍受制於20天移動平均線（26276點）阻力。能否企穩26000點以上，甚或突破20天線阻力，端視「特習會」是否傳來利好消息。如成功上越20天線並企穩其上，往上目標看26550點/26950點。反之，如「特習會」結果令市場失望，恆指失守26000點，初步支持位25600點。

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