Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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後抽100天線及回補下跌裂口

Monday, November 24, 2025 Views80

港股上周反覆下行,恆指在上周五最低見到25178點,收報25220點,相對前周累跌1352點,跌幅達5.1%。國指失守9000點關,收報8919點,按周亦跌5.1%。恒生科技指數收報5395點,周跌幅達7.2%,是連跌第四周。滬深股市上周亦顯著回落,上證指數失守3,900點關,上周五收報3,834點,創近兩個月收市新低,按周跌3.9%,創近1年最大單星期跌幅;深成指和創業板指按周分別下跌5.1%和6.1%,三大指數都連跌兩星期。

 

美股方面,AI股高估值引起市場憂慮,科技股遭拋售,恐慌指標VIX指數在上周四飆升至26.42點。不過,紐約聯邦儲備銀行行長威廉斯暗示今年可能再次減息,利率期貨顯示,12月減息機會由周四約40%躍升至75%,令美股上升周五反彈,但總結一周,道指和標指跌近2%,納指挫近3%。其中,納指更連跌四周。美國政府停擺結束後,經濟數據恢復公布,美國9月非農就業人數增加11.9萬人,從經修正後的8月就業人數減少4,000人中回升,並超出市場預期的5萬人。這是五個月以來的最大幅度的新增就業, 不過,9月失業率卻升至4.4%,高於8月的4.3%,超出市場預期的4.3%,並創下自2021年10月以來的最高水平。另外,截至11月15日當周,美國初次申請失業金人數較前一周減少8,000人,降至22萬人,但仍遠高於自第二季度末以來的平均水平。消費者對通脹及失業憂慮持續,密歇根大學11月消費者信心指數進一步下滑至51。此外,標普全球美國11月製造業 PMI 從10月的 52.5 降至 51.9,低於市場預期的 52.0,顯示擴張動能減弱。然而,服務業仍相對景氣,服務業 PMI 從 54.8 升至 55.0,創四個月新高。

 

說回港股,恆指暫守住10月17日低位25145點,本周初料會跟隨美股反彈(港股ADR預計恆指本周一高開366點報25,586點),將後抽100天移動平均線(25640點),以及回補上周五下跌裂口,該下跌裂口闊209點,介於25692點和25483點之間。

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