Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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突破50天線

Monday, December 29, 2025 Views138

突破50天線

 

上周港股市場整體呈現窄幅震盪格局,受聖誕假期影響,交投相對清淡,僅有兩個個半交易日(12月24日為半日市,25-26日休市)。恆指高低波幅不足300點,高位受制於26000點阻力,但跌近25700點卻見到支持,周三平安夜收報25,818點,按周累升128點或0.5%、國指累升13點或不足0.2%、科指累升20點或0.4%。滬深股市上周顯著造好,上證指數上周五收報3963點,距離前頂4034點不遠,全周計累升1.9%;深成指累升3.5%;創業板指數累升3.9%。人民幣延續升勢,離岸人民幣兌美元升穿7.0關口,為2024年9月底以來首次;在岸人民幣兌美元升穿7.01關口,創2024年9月27日以來高,主要由於年末結匯需求持續旺盛,再加上外部美元缺乏反彈動力所致。

 

上周美股市場在聖誕假期影響下僅有三個半交易日(12月24日為半天市,25日休市),整體呈現上漲格局,受科技股反彈和正面經濟數據帶動,道指和標普500指數在平安夜齊創收市新高。不過,聖誕假期後呈現回吐,總結全星期,道指升1.2%;標普500指數升1.4%,納指升1.2%,兩者都連升兩星期。美國第三季度GDP年化增長修訂至4.3%,優於預期的3.2%;首次失業救濟申請降至21.4萬人,低於預期的22.4萬,顯示勞動市場穩健。未來一周要公布的經濟數據包括12月S&P 全球製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)終值、10月核心個人消費支出(PCE)等。同時,美聯儲將於本周三公布12月議息會議紀要。

 

說回港股,本周港股僅四個交易日(12月31日半日市,2026年1月1日元旦休市,1月2日復市),預期交投清淡。在外圍股市承托下,恒指或有望上試26000點及突破50天移動平均線(該線現時已下降至25970點附近),下一阻力位將為26264點,回落支持位25670點。

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