Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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回補上升裂口

Monday, January 19, 2026 Views78

港股上周反覆上行,恆指在上周四最高見到27206點,但未能企穩27000點以上,周五收報26844點,但相對前周仍上升613點,升幅2.3%。國指和科指按周分別上升0.2%和2.4%。滬深股市方面,上證指數上周再創逾十年高,滬深兩市成交增至逾3.9萬億元的紀錄新高。為維持「健康慢牛」趨勢,滬深北交易所於 1月14日上調融資保證金比例至 100%,以適當降低市場槓桿,一度為股市帶來沽壓。其後,中國人民銀行於上周四公布下調各類結構性貨幣政策工具利率四分一厘,並於本下周一起下調再貸款及再貼現利率0.25個百分點。同時,人民銀行官員表示,今年降準降息還有一定空間,為股市帶來支持,上證指數力守4100點,上周五收報4101點,按周下跌18點或0.5%,深成指和創業板指數按周分別上升1.1%1%

 

本周一中國將公布GDP及「三頭馬車」數據,市場預期去年第四季GDP年率上升4.5%,全年GDP年率升5%。「三頭馬車」數據方面,

去年12月社會消費品零售總額預測升1.1%;去年全年城鎮固定資產投資預測跌3.1%;去年12月城鎮調查失業率預測為5.2%。

 

美股上周呈現高位震盪格局,總結一周,道指跌0.1%,標普500指數跌0.4%,納指跌0.7%。上周的經濟數據確認了「增長穩、通脹降」的理想環境。其中,截至1月10日當周,美國首次申請失業救濟金人數按周意外下降9,000人,至19.8萬人,市場預期為增加至21.5萬人。去年12月消費者物價指數(CPI)年度通脹率維持在2.7%,與11月一致,並符合市場預期。按月計,CPI上漲0.3%,符合預期。核心月度通脹率為0.2%,低於0.3%的預期。本周一美股因馬丁路德金紀念日休市,美國將迎來繁忙的經濟數據發布日程,其中個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數 和去年第四季度 GDP 首次修正值為市場關注焦點。同時,本周將是美股財報季的第一個高峰,多家重量級公司,特別是科技和醫療保健行業巨頭,將陸續公布 2025 年第四季度業績,當中包括3M、強生、寶潔、芙英特樂和Netflix。

 

說回港股,恆指上破27000點,但屢次受制於27200點的阻力。由於成交回降,上升動能減弱,未來可能先補回上周二的上升裂口,該上升裂口闊121點,介於26608點或26729點之間。恆指10天移動平均線現時亦剛好處於26610點附近,若然失守,下一支持位看26200點。

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