Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666

恆指形成一浪高一浪走勢

Monday, May 11, 2026 Views393

上周港股整體呈現先跌後升、震盪上行的格局,恒生指數最終重返26,000點上方,周四最高見到26,669點,創逾兩個月高位。周五回吐二百多點,收報26,393點,相對前周累升617點或2.4%扭轉兩周跌勢,主要受惠於市場對地緣政治局勢緩和的憧憬,帶動風險情緒改善。國指和科指按周分別上升2.4%和4.7%,科指更創下近半年來最大單周升幅。上周南向資金(北水)流入強勁,僅5月8日單日淨買入達 131.68 億港元

 

滬深股市在5月首周(5月6日至8日僅3個交易日)也迎來「開門紅」,上證指數按周上升1.7%,接近4,197點的前期高點。深成指按周上升3%,受益於科技及成長股在五一假期後的強勁補漲。 經濟數據方面,外貿進出口數據顯著優於預期,而製造業與服務業PMI顯示景氣度總體擴張。海關總署公佈的數據顯示,4 月份出口(美元計價)同比增長 14.1%,遠超市場預期的 8.4%,主要受集成電路及 AI 相關自動數據處理設備需求猛增帶動。進口(美元計價)同比大幅增長 25.3%,顯示國內對半導體零部件及能源的囤貨需求增加。4 月順差為 848.2 億美元。另外,國家統計局與Rating Dog公佈的採購經理指數(PMI)數據顯示景氣度總體擴張,但動力來源不同。官方製造業 PMI 4月份錄得50.3%,連續兩個月位於榮枯線上方,顯示製造業景氣平穩,但非製造業 PMI受建築業放緩影響,微降至 49.4%,顯示基建及房地產相關活動仍面臨壓力。 4月份Rating Dog 製造業 PMI 錄得 52.2,高於3月份的50.8,並創出自202012月以來最高 的擴張速度。4月服務業 PMI 52.6,較 3 月的 52.1 回升,且連續 40 個月 處於擴張區間。

 

美股上周呈現強勢噴發態勢,標普500指數納指雙雙錄得連續第六周上升,按周分別上升4.5%和2.3%,並再度刷新歷史新高。道指表現相對平穩,全周微升 0.2%。市場重心集中在科技成長股,傳統藍籌股升幅受限。經濟數據方面,儘管面臨地緣政治及通脹壓力,勞動力市場依然具備韌性,且第一季經濟增長動力高於預期。4 月非農就業新增 11.5 萬人,雖然較 3 月上修後的 18.5 萬人有所放緩,但遠高於市場預期的6.5萬人,醫療保健與運輸業是主要增長引擎。失業率維持在 4.3%,與 3 月持平,反映就業市場進入平穩期。截至 5 月 2 日當周為 20 萬人,略高於前一周的19萬人,但仍處於歷史低位。第一季 GDP 初值按年化季率計算增長 2.0%,其中,企業固定資產投資(尤其是 AI 相關設備)大幅增長 10.4%,抵銷了個人消費支出放緩的影響。不過,密歇根大學消費者信心指數5 月初值由4月的49.8降至歷史低位48.2,為連續第三個月回落,低於預期的49.5,顯示受中東局勢及汽油價格飆升影響,消費者對現狀感到擔憂。市場將關注本周二公佈的 4 月 消費物價指數(CPI),預計環比將漲 0.6%。

 

說回港股,恆指上周四最高見到26669點,突破了4月21日高位26529點,形成一浪高一浪走勢。周五回吐,補回周四的上升裂口的一部分,該上升裂口濶305點,介於26213點和26518點之間,已補回大部分。估計在完成短期整固後,可挑戰26700點。若突破26700點,下一目標看27000點。

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
Top of Page
Contact Us
Please contact your account executive or call us now.
Research Department
Tel : (852) 2277 6846
Fax : (852) 2277 6565
Email : businessenquiry@phillip.com.hk

Enquiry & Support
Branches
The Complaint Procedures
About Us
Phillip Securities Group
Join Us
Phillip Network
Phillip Post
Phillip Channel
Latest Promotion
新闻稿
E-Check
Login
Investor Notes
Free Subscribe
Contact Us